Page 19 - TURKRptSep21

76.5% a year ago.
59% of individuals used e-government services.
44% of individuals purchased goods or services over the internet, against 36.5% a year ago: 71% of the people who shopped on the internet bought clothes, shoes and accessories, while 41% ordered food, beverages and catering services, 33% cosmetics, beauty or wellness products and 28% printed books, magazines or newspapers.
3.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro Indicators
Q1-19
Q2
Q3
Q4
2019
Q1-20
Q2
Q3
Q4
2020
Q1-20
Q2
Q3
GDP Growth (y/y, %)
-2.6
-1.7
1.0
6.4
0.9
4.5
-10.3
6.3
5.9
1.8
7.0
-
-
Electricity Consumption (y/y, Aug 22)
-1.5
0.4
-1.5
0.5
-0.6
3.3
-11.5
3.6
4.5
0.2
5.7
25.8
14.1
Employed (active, mn)
27.0
26.9
26.9
26.7
26.7
25.1
20.8
25.2
25.1
24.1
25.8
26.6
-
Population (mn)
-
-
-
-
83.2
-
-
-
-
83.6
-
-
-
GDP (per capita, $)
-
-
-
-
9,127
-
-
-
-
8,599
-
-
-
GDP (current, TRYbn)
925
1,028
1,158
1,208
4,320
1,074
1,036
1,414
1,525
5,048
1,386
-
-
GDP (current prices, $bn)
172
175
204
209
761
177
152
197
192
717
188
-
-
CPI (%, eop, Jul)
19.7
15.7
9.3
11.8
11.8
11.9
12.6
11.8
14.6
14.6
16.2
17.5
19.0
Lira-loans (%, y/y, Aug 20)
3.0
-0.5
4.0
13.9
13.9
19.1
39.4
46.4
43.3
43.3
34.4
17.1
12.3
Policy Rate (%)
25.5
23.9
16.3
11.4
11.4
9.3
7.6
11.1
17.0
17.0
19.0
19.0
19.0
CA Balance ($bn)
-1.88
-1.29
5.92
-1.07
1.67
-8.86
-12.4
-8.73
-7.35
-37.3
-7.6
-6.0
-
CA Balance/GDP (%)
-1.1
-0.7
2.9
-0.5
0.2
-5.0
-8.1
-4.4
-3.8
-5.2
-4.0
-
-
Budget (TRYbn, Jul)
-36
-42
-7
-38
-124
-30
-80
-31
-32
-173
23
-55
-46
Budget Balance/GDP (%)
-3.9
-4.1
-0.6
-3.1
-2.9
-2.8
-7.7
-2.2
-2.1
-3.4
1.6
-
-
USD/TRY (eop, Aug 27)
5.56 5.79 5.65 5.95 5.95 6.61 6.85 7.72 7.44 7.44
8.24
8.70
8.35
On August 20, finance minister Lutfi Elvan said the 2021 GDP growth will be released at over 8%.
On August 9, Spanish lender BBVA, which controls one of Turkey’s top banks, Garanti BBVA, took a proactive step, shooting for 9% “with risks still on the upside.”
Why not double digits?
Public “bidding” on the official 2021 GDP growth will continue until March 2022, when the 2021 data will be released.
The current account deficit for 2021 is planned to be released at 3% of GDP and the budget deficit at 3.5% of GDP, according to Elvan.
Elvan also said that new lending campaigns under the state’s Credit Guarantee Fund (KGF) are to be launched. (Some momentum has recently been seen in Turkey’s loan growth, but a sharp jump is not visible as yet. See Section 8.1.2 below for charts.)
The official target for growth in 2021 in the government’s medium-term
19 TURKEY Country Report September 2021 www.intellinews.com