Page 6 - AfrElec Week 18 2021

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec

Wider implications of unrest in

northern Mozambique

Amid doubts about an SADC plan to send troops to Cabo Delgado, Mozambican authorities
should consider working with Tanzania to contain Islamist militants.

MOZAMBIQUE UNREST in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique’s of Mozambique, to discuss the situation in Cabo
northernmost province, has already had a sig- Delgado. At that meeting, delegates from
WHAT: nificant economic impact. Angola, Botswana, South Africa, Malawi, Tanza-
ASWJ attacks have Attacks perpetrated by Ahlu Sunnah nia and Zimbabwe called for sending a regional
already disrupted Wa-Jamo (ASWJ), an Islamist militant group, African force consisting of nearly 3,000 troops to
Mozambique’s economic recently led France’s Total to declare force northern Mozambique.
prospects. majeure on Mozambique LNG, a $20bn scheme The proposal drew sufficient support for it
that calls for the development of Area 1, a huge to be slated for presentation to SADC’s heads
WHY: offshore natural gas field, and the construction of of state during a summit scheduled for the first
Concerns about a an onshore gas liquefaction plant. This declara- week of May. It also won applause from NJ Ayuk,
spillover of the conflict tion is anticipated to set work on the project back the executive chairman of the African Energy
have led SADC to by at least a year, so it is bad news for the service Chamber. Ayuk told the Journal of Petroleum
contemplate a multi- companies that were counting on working for Technology last week that he believed SADC’s
lateral military initiative. Total as contractors or sub-contractors. plan would help curb conflict in Cabo Delgado
The suspension of work on Mozambique relatively quickly. The group’s military force
WHAT NEXT: LNG also has the potential to disrupt other large- should be able to obtain results quickly enough,
If reports of Nyusi’s scale gas projects. ExxonMobil (US), the opera- he said, to allow Total to resume work in “less
preference for tor of the Rovuma LNG project, is also planning than 12 months,” he commented.
bilateral deals prove to build an onshore complex to process gas
true, Tanzania could from its offshore site, known as Area 4. It post- Doubts about Maputo
be a useful ally for poned its final investment decision (FID) on the However, this optimistic take appears to have
Mozambique. Rovuma LNG project in 2020, citing concerns been premature. SADC has not formally
about low global energy prices and the impact of adopted the plan, as its summit has been post-
the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and it poned indefinitely.
could delay further (or abandon the $30bn plan The ostensible reason for the delay is that only
altogether) if northern Mozambique remains in one of the group’s three-member security team
turmoil. would be able to attend the meeting in Maputo
this week. Some observers believe, though, that
Multi-lateral action SADC’s plans are being derailed not by unex-
But the problems in Cabo Delgado are not pected logistical complications but by deliberate
just economic. They are also worrying from a interference from Mozambique’s government.
humanitarian perspective. ASWJ’s bid to gain As evidence, they have cited Mozambican
control of northern Mozambique has led hun- President Filipe Nyusi’s past assertions that his
dreds of thousands of people to flee Cabo Del- government did not want or need foreign assis-
gado, and the number of refugees may soon tance to address problems in Cabo Delgado.
reach 1mn. Meanwhile, most of the displaced They have also pointed to security sources’
are living in very poor conditions, with few pros- reports that the Mozambican leader sees bilateral
pects for improvement in the near term. deals, such as the agreement his administration
The refugee crisis has also sparked politi- recently struck with Portugal for assistance with
cal concerns, as it has raised the prospect that military training, as preferable to multi-lateral
ASWJ attacks could lead residents of Cabo Del- initiatives such as the troop deployment that
gado to flee to neighbouring countries, such as SADC is contemplating.
Zimbabwe or Zambia. These worries may have
been one of the factors that convinced the South Tanzania: A potential partner?
African Development Community (SADC), a If this is true, then Nyusi ought to consider the
regional multi-lateral group, to consider inter- prospect of a bilateral deal with Tanzania, for
vening in Mozambique. several reasons.
Last week, security officials from SADC’s For one thing, Tanzania has already indi-
member states gathered in Maputo, the capital cated that it is willing to send at least some of

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