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the other Central Asian countries – even Uzbekistan, under its new leadership, has been attempting to develop closer ties with Russia.
“Under the right circumstances, the [Southern Gas Corridor] could be
to divide up the Caspian seabed along a “modified median line” (MML) between the five littoral states appear to be gain- ing the upper hand. This means
a submerged gas pipeline could be built in the Caspian Sea without cross- ing the territories of Russia or Iran. In
uty Foreign Minister Khalaf Khalafov said during a press conference in December. However in a sign that differences between the Caspian littoral states
are still strong, Iran’s foreign ministry was quick to pour cold water on the idea that a settlement was near.
In addition, as the Jamestown Founda- tion wrote on February 6, it is not certain if Ashgabat (as well as Tehran) would be willing to accept the “modified median line” principle of division at the Caspian Sea, since it would require the Central Asian nation to drop any existing claims to Azerbaijani oil and gas fields, such as the Azeri and Chirag offshore oil deposits.
A too optimistic outlook
Even if Ashgabat did embrace the idea, the opposition to the pipeline may be impossible to stamp out.
Moscow clearly has little incentive to help the EU's push to find alternative gas supplies, as the bloc tries to break loose from its almost exclusive dependence
on Russian gas for its energy security. The European Commission filed charges
“But no real progress has been made, mainly due to the unresolved legal status of the inland sea log-jamming Caspian gas exports for years”
expanded to deliver additional volumes from Azerbaijan, as well as new volumes from the Eastern Mediterranean and/
or Turkmenistan,” acting special envoy and coordinator for international energy affairs at the US Department of State Sue Saarnio’s said in a recent interview with Trend news agency. She argued this could help “underpin Europe's long term energy security.”
There are indeed some signs the TCGP could come to life – for example, plans
December 2017, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced an agree- ment has been reached among the five countries over a draft convention for establishing an international legal regime for the sea, which might include the MML principle. If present in the convention, it could be adopted during the summit of the Caspian littoral states in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana in mid-2018.
"Rights for laying pipelines are foreseen in the draft convention,” Azerbaijani Dep-
April 19–20, 2018, London
VII Cbonds Emerging Markets Bond Conference
About the event
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