Page 66 - bne_Magazine_March_2018

66 I New Europe in Numbers bne March 2018
Russia industrial production
Russia’s industrial output performs better than expected in January rising 2.9% y/y
Russia’s industrial output performed better than expected in January, rising 2.9% y/y after contracting in both November and December, Rosstat said on February 16.
However, growth may be hurt this year as the government cuts back on military spending which came in 6% below the budgeted amount in 2017. But analysts say the January statistics support the view that the weak industrial production figures seen at end 2017 were temporary and fairly strong readings in 1Q18 are expected.
Ukraine’s economic growth fell every quarter in 2017
Ukraine’s economic growth slowed during every quarter in 2017 to end the year with 1.8% growth in the last quarter, the State Statistics Service reported on February 14.
That compares to the last quarter of 2016 when growth was 4.5%, as the economy bounced back from a 15% contraction in 2015. However, as the year got going economic growth slowed throughout the rest of the year: Q1 was 2.5%, Q2 was 2.3%, and Q3 was 2.1%.
The full year growth figure was a bit better at 2.1%, according to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) and the outlook for this year is better still with the regulator forecasting 3.4% for all of 2018.
Romania’s GDP soars 7% in 2017
Romania’s GDP increased by 6.9% y/y in Q4 and 7% y/y in 2017, accord- ing to a flash estimate from the statistics office.
Boosted by rampant consumption fuelled by a loose policy mix, the growth rate in 2017 – that was well above potential growth – will fuel inflation and is expected to slow down significantly in 2018.
The government hopes for 6.1% GDP growth in 2018, but more con- servative projections such as that delivered by Fitch rating agency this month indicate a possible slowdown to as low as 3.5%.
Kazakh GDP growth at 4.3% in Jan-Sept
Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 4.3% y/y in the first nine month of 2017, the prime minister’s website reported on October 18.
The figure is in line with the 4.2% growth recorded in the first half of 2017 and represents the ongoing recovery of the Kazakh economy after GDP expansion fell to 1% in 2016.
Astana is substantially reliant on increased oil production coupled with a bet on rising foreign investment to boost growth, while the mild economic recoveries of big trading partners such as Russia have helped to deliver more economic activity. The long-awaited relaunch of the giant Kashagan oil project in the Caspian Sea that took place in October 2016 has also helped to boost growth.
Ukraine GDP y/y % (quarters)
Romania GDP y/y (%)
Kazakhstan GDP y/y
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