Page 27 - RUSRptApr17

4.0 Real Economy
Russia - Main Macro Indicators
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual GDP (y/y)
4.5 4.26 3.41 1.34 0.64 -3.7 -0.5
GDP (per capita)
10,675 13,324 14,079 15,531 13,873 9,055 8,731
GDP: Final consumption expenditure, (local currency)
32,096,141 37,208,226 42,205,094 47,163,119 56,336,400 59,116,800 59,822,700
GDP: Gross fixed investment capital formation, (local currency)
10,472,700 13,982,500 15,223,900 15,077,000 16,436,100 16,812,800 18,112,400
GDP: Exports, (local currency)
13,529,300 16,940,900 18,413,100 18,936,600 21,464,200 23,606,500 22,124,300
GDP: Imports, (local currency)
9,789,600 12,164,400 13,848,100 15,014,100 16,296,400 17,095,200 17,685,800
Source: Rosstat
4.1 Industrial production
Russian industrial production increased 0.8% YoY in March, according to Rosstat, below the Bloomberg consensus (+1.1% YoY), but still substantially better than the 2.7% YoY decline in the previous month.
For 1Q17, industrial production was almost unchanged (+0.1%) vs 1Q16. In a breakdown by sector, the key driver of growth in March was manufacturing (+1% YoY, vs -5.1% YoY in February).
Output in mining and quarrying increased 0.2% YoY as oil&gas extraction still remains above the previous year’s levels. The growth came on the back of coal extraction, which was up 7.5% YoY, compared with 2.9% in February.
Oil output was also slightly positive , printing 0.6% YoY, vs. the 0.7% decline in the previous month. At the same time, natural gas extraction that supported the category in February (+12.1% YoY) has currently shown only 5.2% YoY. Minor (or even negative) contribution of the sector to IP seems to be the reality in the coming months, owing to oil extraction volume limits under the OPEC/non-OPEC deal.
Manufacturing has expanded 1.0% YoY growth , after the sharp decline of 5.1% in February, on machinery and construction materials. The sectorial improvement was mainly helped by the machinery and equipment category. Light and commercial vehicles output added 21.5% YoY and 16.1% YoY (from 0.9% and -3.1% in February), respectively.
Freight wagons rocketed to 130.0% YoY (77.9% the month before), and bus output was on the rise, too (23.0% YoY vs. 35.1% in February).
Construction-related items also performed better than previously : cement output has finally quit the red zone with 1.0% YoY growth, clay and cement-made building bricks output contracted more softly than previously: -8.2% YoY and -8.5% YoY, vs. -13.1% and -23.8%. Overall, this might reflect
27 RUSSIA Country Report April 2017 www.intellinews.com