Page 5 - GLNG Week 28 2021

GLNG COMMENTARY GLNG

It is worth noting that by the end of the y/y to 5.1 bcm, while French and Italian import
year, Asian demand – typically higher during volumes declined by 15.1% and 10.7% y/y
the Northern Hemisphere winter – spiked on respectively.
colder than expected weather and certain sup-
ply bottlenecks. This helped to offset some of the What next?
demand declines that had been seen earlier in Further disruption related to the pandemic can-
the year. not be ruled out and considerable uncertainty
On top of this, China, which locked down continues to hang over the LNG market. None-
first in response to the pandemic, was starting theless, it looks likely that LNG will rebound
to reopen just as lockdowns were becoming from the slowdown in growth it saw in 2020 and
widespread elsewhere in the world. Chinese keep growing as gas increasingly displaces coal
LNG demand – which had already been on an in power generation and as new liquefaction and
upward trend for years – rebounded strongly regasification capacity comes online.
from the lockdown. BP’s data show that Chinese Particularly notable is the fact that Qatar is
LNG imports grew 10.9% in 2020 to reach 94.0 now developing its North Field East expansion
bcm, up from 84.7% the previous year. project – the single largest LNG scheme in the
Other countries in the Asia-Pacific region world, in a bid to regain its lead over Australia
where LNG import volumes rose last year as the world’s largest exporter of the fuel. Qatari
included India, Malaysia, Taiwan and Thai- exports of LNG rose in 2020, but by a negligible
land. Overall LNG imports to the Asia-Pacific amount that equated to less than 0.05% y/y. Aus- Overall LNG
region rose 3.3% y/y to 345.4 bcm, accounting tralia is only estimated to have exported 0.2 bcm
for 70.8% of total global LNG imports. This more than Qatar in 2020, and faces a struggle to imports to the
figure also marked a decline from an average maintain feedstock volumes to its liquefaction Asia-Pacific
increase of 7.8% y/y in imports of LNG to Asia terminals. Thus Qatar is anticipated to be back
over 2009-19. in the lead by the mid-2020s, if not before. region rose 3.3%
Growth in LNG volumes was also reported US exports are also expected to grow over the
across the main importing countries in South coming years as a second wave of liquefaction y/y to 345.4
and Central America, with Chile seeing the capacity comes online, likely starting this year
largest increase, while Argentina and Brazil with Calcasieu Pass LNG in Louisiana. Can- bcm, accounting
also boosted their LNG imports. Other regions, ada is also set to join the ranks of LNG export- for 70.8% of
meanwhile, saw declines in imports – not sur- ers with the start-up of LNG Canada, which is
prising in some cases such as North America, anticipated around the middle of the decade fol- total global LNG
where exports are booming. lowing delays to construction related to corona-
Interestingly, while considerable attention virus (COVID-19). imports.
was paid last year to LNG volumes that would On the import side, demand is also expected
normally go to Asia being diverted to Europe, to keep growing, notably in Asia, with China on
where they were used to fill up storage capacity, course to become the world’s leading importer
BP’s report showed that imports to Europe as a of LNG. However, the demand picture is com-
whole fell 3.8% y/y to 114.8 bcm in 2020. While plicated by the energy transition and the ques-
Turkey and the UK saw their LNG imports rise tion of whether natural gas will ultimately be
last year, Belgian imports of the fuel fell 29.8% treated as a bridge fuel or a destination fuel.™

Week 28 16•July•2021 www. NEWSBASE .com P5