Page 5 - AfrOil Week 09 2022

AfrOil COMMENTARY AfrOil

One source described early results from the well offshore zone operated by ExxonMobil (US),
as “very, very encouraging” and indicative that saying that the Venus-1x well had encountered
TotalEnergies was drilling into “a very thick res- comparable net pay. Liza-1 and Liza-2 are the
ervoir” of crude oil and natural gas. first two sections of Stabroek, which is known
Meanwhile, another source speculated that to contain at least 10bn barrels of oil equiv-
Venus might turn out to be even larger than alent (boe) in recoverable reserves, to begin
Graff, a field located directly to the east where production.
Shell (UK) discovered light crude oil in January The consultancy also talked up the possi-
2022 bility of further large-sized discoveries, saying:
The UK-based consultancy Wood Mac- “Exploration potential beyond Venus is equally
kenzie has estimated that Graff may contain as enticing.”
much as 700mn barrels of oil, while others have Upstream said it had heard similar specu-
estimated the field’s reserves at 500mn barrels. lation from other observers and quoted one
Douglas Rycroft, director at Gneiss Energy, source in southern Africa as saying that the
told NewsBase on February 24 that the Venus Venus West structure had the potential to be
and Graff discoveries could be a watershed around the same size as Venus – and that the two
moment for the development of Namibia’s oil structures might even be connected.
and gas sector, highlighting the potential of this In the meantime, Wood Mackenzie said,
frontier province. TotalEnergies’ next task will probably be to
exercise its options to continue using the Maersk
New frontier province Voyager drillship so that it can appraise the
He said: “Like proverbial buses, [it] has taken a Venus discovery and obtain a better idea of its
long time for the industry to make significant exact dimensions. The field is currently thought
progress offshore Namibia, and now we have to cover around 600 square km, and the French
two success stories within a matter of weeks. major may opt to develop it in several phases,
This morning’s news from TotalEnergies that using floating production, storage and off-load-
the Venus-1x well encountered approximately ing (FPSO) units to support its operations, the
84 metres of net oil pay in a good-quality Lower consultancy said. The Venus and
Cretaceous reservoir follows closely on the heels The first of these FPSOs could come on
of Shell’s Graff discovery in January.” stream in 2028, supporting 35 or more produc- Graff discoveries
Rycroft added that the industry has been tion wells through a tie-back system, it stated.
placing its bets on the prospectivity of Namibia This would bring the field’s output up to 250,000 could be a
for a long time. barrels per day (bpd) at a cost of around $13bn, watershed
To date, “it’s been a tough investment envi- it added.
ronment,” he commented. “However, persever- moment for the
ance has paid off, and the read-through for those FPSO challenges
who have retained their acreage on a relatively The path toward development of the field may development of
low-cost basis should reap the rewards for their not be smooth.
patience. TotalEnergies and Shell, along with One source with extensive FPSO experi- Namibia’s oil and
their respective joint venture partners, will now ence told Upstream that he had questions about gas sector
move quickly to appraise their finds, and whilst Wood Mackenzie’s recommendations, explain-
there will be inevitable competition for the ing that Venus’ location in an ultra-deepwater
neighbouring discoveries, synergies on logistics, section of the Orange basin might complicate
supply chain and development should be a huge matters. Water depths of around 3,000 metres
positive, [leading to] cost savings and improved will be challenging for FPSO vessels’ turret
economics across the board.” mooring systems, he said, as will harsh weather
conditions. There may also be technical prob-
Milestone for sub-Saharan Africa lems because of the weight of the risers that
Meanwhile, Wood Mackenzie appears to be move well fluids from the seafloor to the turret,
even more upbeat about Venus than it has been he stated.
about Graff. The UK-based energy consultancy Another source with knowledge of Venus
has speculated that TotalEnergies’ new discov- indicated that he also expected the field to
ery may be the largest oil find ever made in pose difficulties. Drilling Venus-1x had proved
sub-Saharan Africa. challenging, he told Upstream, as the well had
In a confidential report cited by Upstream, encountered at least two high-pressure areas
the consultancy stated that prior to drilling, it that caused “kicks,” or forced fluid flows into the
had estimated the size of the Venus prospect’s wellbore.
recoverable reserves at 1.5-2.0bn barrels. But in He went on to say that TotalEnergies had yet
light of results from the Venus-1x wildcat well, to give any sign of how it intended to develop
Wood Mackenzie now “conservatively estimates Venus and suggested that the French company
recoverable oil volumes of over 3bn barrels,” the might be better served by a solution involving
report said. the deployment of a smaller FPSO for an early
If this figure is accurate, it added, Venus production programme.
stands to become the largest oil find ever made This would give the firm and its partners a
in sub-Saharan Africa. lower-stakes means of expanding their under-
Wood Mackenzie compared Venus to the standing of the site and of local conditions, he
Liza oilfield at Stabroek, a block in Guyana’s said. ™

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