Page 16 - AsiaElec Annual Review 2021

AsiaElec JULY AsiaElec

China trims 2030 gas

and power goals

The country’s energy planners have reduced gas’ projected
share of the 2030 primary energy mix from 15% to 12%

CHINA THE Chinese government’s pledge to reach car- 2030 and 75% in 2060.
bon neutrality by 2060 has forced the country’s This means that demand for gas is antici-
WHAT: energy planners to rethink the role natural gas pated to peak by 2035, according to predictions
Gas demand is now will play in the national energy mix over the next from state-owned oil and gas pipeline company
projected to peak by 2035 four decades. PipeChina.
While the country will still depend on gas to PipeChina executive Tang Shanhua told the
WHY: help wean itself off coal and crude oil, China is industry event that demand was likely to climb
The government is planning for a future where non-fossil fuels will from 326.2bn cubic metres in 2020 to 526 bcm
focused on ensuring its account for the vast majority of the country’s by 2030, 650 bcm by 2035 and then retreat to 550
carbon emissions peak energy needs. bcm by 2050. Tang said gas demand for power
by 2030 As such, gas now is expected to account for generation would account for most of that
12% of national energy consumption by 2030, growth, a sentiment echoed by the observers.
WHAT NEXT: down from the long-held ambition for the State-run Sinopec has forecast that gas con-
Beijing wants the country cleaner burning fuel to account for 15%. sumption will rise by 9-12% this year to 350-
to be carbon neutral by While still perceived as the bridging fuel to a 360 bcm, with gas-fired power and industrial
2060 greener economy, it is now clear that the coun- demand expected to drive that growth.
try’s mad dash for gas – which led to chronic The vice-president of state-run PetroChina’s
shortages just a few winters ago – is beginning gas sales unit, Hou Chuangye, predicted in April
to cool off. that gas demand would grow by 9-10% this year
As the East Asian giant moves to overtake to around 350-356 bcm.
Japan as the world’s largest importer of liquefied Hou said demand from gas-fired power gen-
natural gas (LNG), predicted by the Interna- erators was anticipated to grow in the future as
tional Energy Agency (IEA) to happen this year, they served as back-up to growing base-load
long-term projections of reduced demand from renewables capacity. The executive added that
the market’s biggest buyer will not be welcome his company would work more closely with the
news for the world’s exporters. country’s state-owned power majors to boost
gas-fired power production.
Revised figures China Electricity Council (CEC) has esti-
An industry conference heard from oil and gas mated that installed gas-fired power capacity will
executives last week that not only would gas reach 150 GW by 2025, from 105.8 GW in May.
account for just 12% of the energy mix by 2030
but that demand itself would peak by 2035 before Green ambitions
slowly declining. China has had to rethink its demand forecasts in
A senior director of CNPC’s planning depart- the wake of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s pledge
ment, Zhu Xingshan, told delegates on July 24 in September 2020 that the country aimed to hit
that while gas would play a central role in help- peak emissions in 2030 before achieving carbon
ing to reduce the country’s coal consumption, it neutrality by 2060.
would only account for 11% of national energy The country’s energy planners had widely
demand by 2060. expected gas demand to climb to 700 bcm by
China is aiming to reduce coal use from 2050, Hou said in April, noting that Xi’s pledge
56.8% of energy consumption in 2020 to below had prompted this figure to be revised down to
56% this year, 44% by 2030 and 8% by 2060, the around 535-605 bcm by 2030.
official Xinhua newswire quoted Zhu as saying. Renewable energy supplies are expected to
Petroleum, meanwhile, is expected to see its fill the gap going forward, with the government
share of the energy mix fall to 18% by 2030 and having unveiled plans last month that pave
6% in 2060. the way for solar and wind power to compete
Underwriting this fundamental shift will the against coal without government subsidies.
rise of non-fossil fuels, which Zhu said would The National Development Reform Com-
account for 26% of the national energy mix by mission (NDRC), the country’s top economy

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