Page 5 - MEOG Week 43 2022

MEOG COMMENTARY MEOG

joint venture between the PIF, CCC (55% com- pipeline and to LNG plants in Egypt. The for-
bined) and EGAS, which will hold the remainder mer was originally built to carry Egyptian gas to
and operate the asset. Israel, but it only carried out this function from
Egyptian officials appear to remain optimis- 2008 to 2012. In 2020, the pipeline began oper-
tic, though, that the chances for pushing the ating in the reverse direction, carrying gas from
project forward are better than ever because Israel’s Tamar field to Egypt.
European gas markets are in turmoil. Meanwhile, some of the gas flowing through
Their position is based on the fact that Euro- the Ashkelon-Arish link has been delivered to
pean energy security has deteriorated signif- Egypt’s Idku and Damietta LNG plants. Those
icantly since the beginning of 2022 due to the plants have spare production capacity and have
Russia-Ukraine war and the subsequent dis- processed Israeli gas into LNG for export to
ruption to Russian oil and gas deliveries. That Europe. Presumably they could do the same for
disruption has left many – perhaps even most gas from Gaza Marine – and with relative ease,
– European countries scrambling to ensure since the Ashkelon-Arish pipe actually passes
their fuel and energy supplies and lock down through the Gaza offshore zone.
new sources of production. Under these condi-
tions, Gaza’s relatively close proximity to Europe Has enough changed?
makes it an attractive candidate. But will Europe’s increased need, changing geo-
In other words, Egypt’s optimism about Gaza political conditions and new infrastructure be
is based on the contention that conditions are enough to tip the balance in favour of develop-
different this time. ment this time?
It is premised on the fact that Europe’s need It is not clear yet. To a significant extent, the
for alternative gas supplies is strong enough to answer to the question is likely to depend heavily
overcome the political obstacles that has helped on Hamas. After all, Egypt and Israel are nego-
keep the Gaza Marine project in limbo for more tiating with the PA, but in practice officials in
than 20 years. It presumes that the EU wants gas Ramallah have had little sway over matters in
more than the Israelis, the PA and Hamas want Gaza since 2007. And while Hamas did sign a
to remain at odds. reconciliation deal with Fatah, the main faction
within the PA, in mid-October, it remains to be
Egyptian infrastructure seen whether the document has any concrete
In a way, it is true that conditions are different impact. (Previous reconciliation pledges have
this time. had little effect.)
Gaza Marine has certain advantages now So for now, even though El-Molla remains
that it did not have when it was first discovered. optimistic about the possibility of opening up an
It has the advantage of proximity to existing Egyptian corridor for gas from Gaza, he will have
infrastructure – namely, to the Ashkelon-Arish to continue waiting for a while longer.™

Week 43 26•October•2022 www. NEWSBASE .com P5