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With any figure below 50 indicating a contraction, the decline in the PMI figures can only be taken as another indication of the deleterious heavy sanctions campaign being waged against Iran by the US. Credit inside the country remains tight for lending, meanwhile, and the long hot summer in Iran is said to have hit demand across multiple sectors, impacting many factories.
Iran Chamber (full name Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture) publishes PMI data for industry overall and 12 of its subfields. It has plans to expand its PMI coverage to sectors including agriculture at a later date.
During the fifth calendar month, plastic and rubber production in Iran posted the highest PMI registering 56.3. Wood, paper and furnishings posted the lowest score, at 35.9.
Looking at index components, output and new and contributed to the month-on-month decrease in the headline PMI figure, while suppliers' delivery times and employment scores improved.
The reading for exports in the fifth month fell from to 44.65 from 46.84.
4.3 Labour and income
4.3.1 Labour market, unemployment dynamics
Unemployment rate stood at 12.4% in last fiscal year
According to the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI), the country’s unemployment rate in the last fiscal year (ended March 20) stood at 12.4%, 1.4% up on the previous year. However, the actual unemployment rate is likely to be higher than that given methodology which means that if a person has just one hour of work a week officials count them as employed.
Youth unemployment (covering the 15-29 age range), stands at least twice the general joblessness rate, according to latest available data, while university graduate unemployment is thought to be around 40%. Despite the many times the government has stressed the need to boost employment, overall youth unemployment has risen more than 5% in the past three years.
The minimum monthly salary in Iran stands at IRR9.3mn ($240), while the average monthly salary stands at IRR23.3mn ($617) per month, according to a report from the Financial Tribune on April 15. The report shows that living conditions in the country have improved following several years of a drop in the quality of life, due to the removal of sanctions.
The average Iranian earns IRR278.8mn ($7,416) per annum. However, the report noted the average family spends on average 262.3mn ($6,978) per year so little is made in savings. The report also added that the average household consists of 3.4 members and that families of four now account for 30.4% of the society. The majority of families (59.8%) have only one breadwinner. Housing costs account for the biggest slice of income expenditure.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook released last October forecast that unemployment would increase to 12.8% in 2018 and 14.3% in 2019.
19 IRAN Country Report December 2019 www.intellinews.com