Page 21 - IRANRptDec19

overall imports last year. Much of the trade is conducted by private Iraqi companies said to have limited exposure in and to the US, and its financial system, and therefore not overly anxious about being sanctioned.
On November 21, Iran announced that ​smuggled goods with a value of at least $12bn​ flowed into and out of Iran during the 2017/2018 Persian calendar year (ended March 21).
5.1.1 ​current account dynamics
Iran current account, USD mn
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Balance of payments overall
-947
21,436
12,213
13,189
8,561
2,233
Current account balance
27,554
58,507
23,362
25,105
15,861
1,237
16,388
15,816
Current account balance: % of GDP
5.66
10.08
3.87
5.43
3.12
0.32
3.92
Total Exports
130,500
95,500
82,000
88,800
63,000
Total Imports
62,661
59,999
51,914
48,138
52,007
40,097
41,945
54,459
Trade Balance
68,692
42,049
32,291
35,231
20,5000
Source: CEIC, Central Bank of Iran
Iran running a current account surplus and has over $100bn of gross official reserves, says IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in March that the government held $112bn of foreign assets and reserves. It also indicated that Iran was running a current account surplus.​ The figures imply that Iran might withstand the sanctions without an external payments crisis.
But the IMF also noted that Tehran was having difficulty accessing some of its reserves as its relations with foreign banks were constrained by the threat of US sanctions. Meanwhile, sanctions could cut the current account surplus sharply given the severe disruption they are causing to trade.
The IMF estimated in its World Economic Outlook released last October that Iran’s current account surplus would see a decline from 2.2% of GDP in 2017 to 1.3% in 2018 and 0.3% in 2019.
5.1.2 ​Import/export dynamics
Trade official speaks of doubling Iran-Syria trade to $1bn within two years
Chairman of the Iran-Syria Joint Chamber of Commerce Keyvan Kashefi has said that the two allies are aiming to double their annual bilateral trade to the $1bn threshold over the next two years, Mehr News reported. In many ways the state in Syria is barely functioning given the damage and chaos wrought by the Syrian Civil War since it started in early 2011. Iran and Russia, which have provided​ ​military and political support to ensure the survival of the Damascus regime​,​ along with China, hope that with the war now over in most of the country their companies will be successful in picking up multiple Syrian contracts in post-war reconstruction, telecoms and the automotive industry. However, foreign investors in Syria must overcome formidable financing obstacles, given the Western sanctions aimed at Syria. Iranian companies have the added difficulty that US sanctions directed at Tehran have shut them out of the global financial system.
Kashefi talked of big potential in Iranian-Syrian bilateral trade at a conference
21​ IRAN Country Report​ December 2019 www.intellinews.com