Page 26 - TURKRptDec20

However, a story of “demand adjustment strengthening starting from December” may see the sought after outcome arrive as early as January.
So, if it is assumed that Erdogan will be convinced to not push his luck too much, Turkey may enter into a rate-cutting cycle around March or April, ceteris paribus.
However, the crushing poverty felt in Turkey may push Erdogan to call for the ‘achievement’ of single-digit inflation and rate cuts even earlier.
Index numbers and rate of changes in the consumer price index, 2005=100
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2019
398.07
398.71
402.81
409.63
413.52
413.63
419.24
422.84
427.04
435.59
437.25
440.5
2020
446.45
448.02
450.58
454.43
460.62
465.84
468.56
472.61
477.21
487.38
Monthly rate of change (%)
2019
1.06
0.16
1.03
1.69
0.95
0.03
1.36
0.86
0.99
2
0.38
0.74
2020
1.35
0.35
0.57
0.85
1.36
1.13
0.58
0.86
0.97
2.13
Annual rate of change (%)
2019
20.35
19.67
19.71
19.5
18.71
15.72
16.65
15.01
9.26
8.55
10.56
11.84
2020
12.15
12.37
11.86
10.94
11.39
12.62
11.76
11.77
11.75
11.89
4.3​ Industrial sectors and trade 4.3.1​ PMI Production dynamics
The headline PMI ​rose​ to 53.9 in October from 52.8 in September. IHS Markit forecast that industrial production in Turkey will only fall by 0.8% this year.
4.3.2 ​Corporate profits dynamics
Sabanci Holding, Turkey’s second largest industrial group, ​reported​ Q3 consolidated net income of Turkish lira (TRY) 1.6bn​ (€160mn), marking a gain of 75% y/y.
Consolidated revenues moved up 11% y/y to TRY27bn, while Ebitda grew 33% y/y to TRY5.6bn.
Non-bank revenues improved to TRY17.8bn in Q3 from TRY14.3bn a year ago
26​ TURKEY Country Report​ December 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com