Page 20 - TURKRptOct20
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GDP (current, TRYbn)
2,339
2,609
3,111
3,724
922
1,023
1,146
1,190
4,280
1,071
1,042
-
GDP (current prices, $bn)
859
863
852
766
172
174
202
206
754
176
153
-
CPI (%, eop, Aug)
8.8
8.5
11.9
20.3
19.7
15.7
9.3
11.8
11.8
11.9
12.6
11.8
Lira-loans (%, y/y, Sep 18)
14.4
12.3
24.9
1.8
3.0
-0.5
4.0
13.9
13.9
19.1
40.9
47.9
Policy Rate (%, eop, active)
8.8
8.3
12.8
24.1
25.5
23.9
16.3
11.4
11.4
9.3
7.6
11.0
Population (mn)
78.7
79.8
80.8
82.0
-
-
-
-
83.2
-
-
-
Employed (active, mn)
25.7
25.7
27.3
26.6
27.0
26.9
26.9
26.7
26.7
22.5
23.0
-
CA Balance ($bn, Jul)
-32.4
-31.5
-46.6
-28.3
-1.88
-1.29
5.92
-1.07
1.67
-7.87
-11.9
-1.82
CA Balance/GDP (%)
-3.8
-3.6
-5.5
-3.7
-1.1
-0.7
2.9
-0.5
0.2
-4.5
-7.8
-
Budget (TRYbn, Aug)
-23.5
-29.9
-47.8
-72.6
-36.16
-42.4
-7.2
-37.9
-123.7
-29.6
-79.9
-1.5
Budget Balance/GDP (%)
-1.0
-1.1
-1.5
-1.9
-3.9
-4.1
-0.6
-3.2
-2.9
-2.8
-7.7
-
USD/TRY (eop, Sep 29)
2.92
3.53
3.79
5.29
5.56
5.79
5.65
5.95
5.95
6.61
6.85
7.82
source: imf, tuik, treasury, central bank
Official GDP contracted 9.9% y/y in Q2.
Capital Economics now forecasts that the Turkish economy will slump by 3%
this year rather than by the 5.8% it previously anticipated.
In August, finance minister Berat Albayrak said GDP would show between 1% growth and 2% contraction in 2020. Forecasts will converge to Albayrak’s order to the statistics institute.
The latest Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecast for the year on year contraction of economic output Turkey is expected to suffer in 2020 is 2.9%, compared to the 4.8% it predicted in June.
4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
Interestingly, despite the collapse in demand for exports, Turkey’s electricity consumption, a gauge of industrial activity, posted its first annual growth in August. Prior to that, from February, it was in contraction. August electricity
20 TURKEY Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com
