Page 6 - FSUOGM Week 05 2023

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

Russia’s current account surplus

falls by $16bn to $31bn in 4Q22

The record result was driven by the rise in the value of exports of goods and services,
up 14% y/y to $78bn, an all-time high amid high global commodity prices.

GLOBAL THE value of imports into Russia in the fourth already record high a year earlier of $122bn.
quarter of 2022 decreased at a slower pace year The record result was driven by the rise in the
on year, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) value of exports of goods and services, up 14%
reported on January 26. y/y to $78bn, an all-time high amid high global
The positive change was driven by the reori- commodity prices.
entation of imports to countries that had not The current account surplus in 2022 also
introduced sanctions against Russia and by the increased due to the contraction of imports,
expansion of parallel imports, the CBR said in which were down by 9% y/y to $34bn.
a report. The CBR highlighted that the oil price cap
“In the fourth quarter, the value of goods and scheme introduced on December 5 was a major
services exports started to decrease y/y, after the factor in the dynamics of the balance of pay-
increase posted in the third quarter. This took ments after exports and the price of oil plunged
place amid the deteriorating global price envi- in December, causing the federal budget to end
ronment and tougher restrictions,” the CBR the year with a budget deficit of 2.3% of GDP for
noted. 2022.
In the fourth quarter the current account The value of exports of goods and services
surplus decreased to $31bn versus $47bn for the decreased by 15% y/y in the fourth quarter com-
same period a year earlier. pared with 4% y/y in the third quarter.
“This happened mainly due to a reduction “This is due to the deterioration in the
in exports due to a less favourable price envi- dynamics of world energy prices and the weak-
ronment on the world market and tightening ening of demand due to fears of a recession in the
restrictions,” the CBR said. “Decreasing pres- global economy,” the CBR said.
sure on exports was also exerted by weakening Brent oil price growth slowed to 11% y/y in
demand due to expectations of a slowdown in 4Q22 compared with 36% y/y gain in the third
global economic growth.” quarter and a 64% y/y gain in the second quarter
Despite the fall in the last quarter of last year, of the year.
the CBR pointed out that the overall result for “The situation with Russian oil was even more
2022 was good. The current account surplus hit unfavourable. The price of Urals fell by 20% y/y
an all-time high of $227bn, almost double the to $63/bbl on average in 4Q22 compared to a 4%

P6 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 05 01•February•2023