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46 I Eurasia bne November 2017
Effect of a 1C Increase in Temperature on Real per Capita Output at the Grid Level
Mongolia, Russia to reap benefits from climate change
bne IntelliNews
While numerous countries around the world fear the humanitarian and economic crises climate change is expected
to bring, Mongolia – and to a lesser extent Russia and several other CEE/ CIS countries – will reap significant economic benefits from a modest rise in global temperatures, a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) study finds.
Mongolia is the clear outlier; the IMF forecasts that the country’s per capita output will grow by just under 1.4% in case of a 1°C increase in temperatures.
More broadly, the CEE/CIS region as a whole is set to benefit disproportionately from hotter temperatures. The same 1°C increase would boost the economies of
a total of 13 countries across the region, more than half of the 22 countries worldwide that the IMF anticipates
will benefit.
They include Russia, where a 0.83% increase in per capita output is expected if temperatures rise 1°C, along with Belarus, the Baltic states, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
www.bne.eu
Source: IMF
Mongolia in particular is a country of extreme temperatures. Ulan Bataar has the dubious distinction of being the world’s coldest capital – beating the capitals of Canada and Kazakhstan – and temperatures range from above 40C in the Gobi desert in summer to below -40C on winter nights.
In such extreme cold temperatures, also seen in parts of Russia and Kazakhstan, economic activity is inhibited in winter.
– which has already become the world’s top exporter of wheat this year.
The melting of the polar ice cap, albeit a mounting catastrophe in global terms, is also seen by some as good news for Rus- sia, whose ships are now able to navigate Arctic waters. This will also help open
up exploration of the Arctic continental shelf, where substantial energy reserves still lie untapped. Recognising the poten- tial of the Russian Arctic, Moscow plans
“The same 1°C increase would boost the economies of a total of 13 countries across the region”
Construction sites sit idle, transport
is interrupted and – despite specially adapted technologies – industries such as mining are also affected.
In addition, warmer, wetter weather, as forecast in the IMF study, could make it possible to grow a greater volume and variety of crops in countries like Russia
to spend RUB209bn (€3.4bn) in the region over the next three years, with state and commercial companies pledging billions more.
President Vladimir Putin acknowledged this in an interview with CNBC this spring. “What I’m about to say may be unpopular... Climate change brings in