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bne November 2017 Eurasia I 47
more favourable conditions and improves the economic potential of [the Arctic] region,” he told the news channel.
In other countries in the CEE/CIS region, the impact is likely to be insignificant, and none are expected to experience
a fall in output.
This is similar to the situation in most
of Europe and North America, but in stark contrast to other world regions. Africa is set to be the worst affected, while a fall in output is also forecast
in Latin America, the Middle East, the Indian subcontinent, Southeast Asia and Australasia. This means most countries worldwide and the vast majority of the world’s population would be negatively impacted.
“Close to 60% of the world’s population currently resides in countries where an increase in temperature would likely lead to such pernicious effects. By the end of the 21st century, this number
is projected to rise to more than three- quarters of the global population,” the report says.
“Higher temperatures hurt economic activity in hot countries through many channels. They lower agricultural out- put, reduce the productivity of workers exposed to heat, slow investment, and damage health,” it warns. Many of the countries in the affected region are low income, making it harder for them to adapt to climate change.
The 1°C increase examined in the survey falls far short of the expected tem- perature hike by the end of this century, which could be as high as 4°C or even more if sufficient measures are not taken to curb global warming. This would “erase close to one-tenth of the per capita output of the median low-income country by the end of the 21st century, relative to a scenario of unchanged temperature,” says the IMF. Overall, “Climate change is a negative global externality of potentially catastrophic proportions,” it concludes.
The IMF also acknowledges that country level data doesn't show the whole picture as there are significant differ-
Initial Kyrgyz election results show Jeenbekov set for surprise outright victory
bne intellinews
In what is arguably the first ever democratic transition of power in Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan’s Social Democratic Party (SDP) representative, Sooranbai Jeenbekov, won 55% of the vote in a election on October 15, making him the outright winner of the election with no need for a second round. His popular opponent Omurbek Babanov won only 34% of the vote.
The result was a surprise in what has been a messy campaign; analysts predicted that neither Jeenbekov nor Babanov would break the 40% threshold required to win the election within the first round. And Babanov was the hot favourite to win in a second round match.
Jeenbekov received public backing from Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atam- bayev and is seen by some as Atambayev’s stooge who may continue ruling from the shadows.
Still, the fact the election happened at all was a victory. Atambayev was barred from running for a second term by the constitution and rather than change the constitution, as most of his peers have done in neighbouring countries,
he stepped aside.
However, Atambayev has made sure he retains plenty of power. He managed to push through a referendum in December 2016, which weakened the presidency in favour of the prime minister. Having his loyal SDP party control the parliamentary majority and, therefore, having the power to appoint the prime minister, he has successfully got the SDP candidate elected and Atambayev might end up having significant leverage over Kyrgyz politics beyond his presidency.
As might be expected from a young democracy, the campaigning was rough. Atambayev led a dramatic campaign to discredit Babanov in a bid to get Jeenbekov elected in the first round. The Central Election Commission issued three consecutive warnings that Babanov could be removed from the ballot for alleged violations by his campaign; Kyrgyzstan’s state security service (GKNB) detained Babanov’s ally, Kanatbek Isayev, ahead of the election for allegedly planning riots and a violent coup; and the authorities cited Babanov’s meet- ing with Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev as evidence of Kazakhstan’s “meddling” in Kyrgyz elections. But voter turnout on election day was high with 56% of the 6mn strong population voting.
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