Page 30 - UKRRptApr20

In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, Ukraine’s corn, wheat and barley exports rose 26% in the middle of March over the previous week​, reports APK-Inform consultancy. In the week of March 14-20, Ukraine’s grain exports by sea hit 1.2mn tons. In the export year that ends in July, Ukraine’s grain exports are up 22%, to 44.2mn tons. Last week, most exports went to three densely populated nations heavily dependent on food imports: China, Egypt and South Korea. Taras Vysotskiy, Deputy Economy, Trade and Agriculture Minister, said this month Ukraine could export a record 52-55mn tons of grain this season, including 19-20mn tons of wheat.
5.2.2​ Current account dynamics
Ukraine’s current account (C/A) switched to a $159mn deficit in February
from a surplus of $722mn in January, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reported on March 31.
The external trade deficit enlarged to $871mn from $142mn in January​. The goods trade deficit amounted to $871mn (vs. a deficit of 142mn in January). In addition, the surplus of primary income balance dropped to $207mn from $408mn in January.
Goods exports grew 1.2% y/y to $3.6bn ​(vs. 2.2% y/y growth in January). The weaker growth was mostly due to a slowdown in food exports (1.4% y/y growth in February vs. 14.3% y/y growth in January). The exports of mineral products increased 14.1% y/y, and machinery exports grew 12.1% y/y. Meanwhile, metal exports declined 2.0% y/y (vs. a 26.4% y/y fall in January).
Goods imports declined 4.7% y/y to $4.5bn ​(vs. a 1.6% y/y decline in January). The drop was reinforced due to sliding machinery imports (-12.9% y/y in February vs. -0.4% y/y in January). Imports of mineral products declined 12.8% y/y. Meanwhile, food imports improved 15.6% y/y, while imports of industrial products surged 33.3% y/y.
The February financial account surplus swelled to $890mn ​(vs. $183mn in January). In particular, net foreign direct investment inflow amounted to $314bn, while net portfolio investment inflow reached $651mn. Net foreign currency inflow under trade credits amounted to $421mn.
The surplus of Ukraine’s balance of payments in February amounted to $733mn (vs. a deficit of $248mn in February 2019).
The decline of goods imports accelerated, but the growth capacity of goods exports is exhausted due to weakening growth of food exports. The growth capacity of goods exports is also exhausted due to weakening growth of food exports.
The global damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic will inevitably affect Ukraine's external trade, which we expect will plunge in 2020 owing to declines in both goods imports and exports, with the imports drop being higher.
Meanwhile, the price collapse on the global energy markets, and the dropping demand for investment and consumer goods, will have a greater effect on Ukraine’s imports than the decline in global prices for grain and ferrous metals,
30​ UKRAINE Country Report​ April 2018 ​ ​www.intellinews.com