Page 28 - UKRRptApr20

Goods imports declined 4.7% y/y to $4.5bn (vs. a 1.6% y/y decline in January). The drop was reinforced due to sliding machinery imports (-12.9% y/y in February vs. -0.4% y/y in January). Imports of mineral products declined 12.8% y/y. Meanwhile, food imports improved 15.6% y/y, while imports of industrial products surged 33.3% y/y.
The February financial account surplus swelled to $890mn (vs. $183mn in January). In particular, net foreign direct investment inflow amounted to $314bn, while net portfolio investment inflow reached $651mn. Net foreign currency inflow under trade credits amounted to $421mn.
The surplus of Ukraine’s balance of payments in February amounted to $733mn (vs. a deficit of $248mn in February 2019).
Ukraine’s goods trade balance was back in the black after posting a surplus of $140mn in January from a $1.3bn deficit in the prior month, ​the State Statistics Service reported on March 16.
The seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit narrowed to $530mn from a $790mn deficit in December, amid 4.6% m/m growth in adjusted exports and a 1.5% m/m fall in adjusted imports.
In January, goods exports rose 2.3% y/y to $4.2bn (vs. a 0.1% y/y increase in December).
The growth was driven by grain exports (21.9% y/y), exports of vegetable and animal fats and oil (29.5% y/y), mineral products (16.6% y/y) and machinery (12.1% y/y). At the same time, exports of ferrous metals dropped 27.2% y/y.
Goods imports declined 1.4% y/y to $4.0bn in January (vs. 6.6% y/y growth in December). In particular, imports of energy products dropped 15.3% y/y, and vehicle imports declined 10.0% y/y. In addition, chemical imports slid 4.9% y/y. Meanwhile, machinery imports increased 2.1% y/y, and food imports surged 34.9% y/y.
“The improvement in the goods trade balance in January was mostly due to weak imports. In particular, the drop in vehicle imports was likely a wearing off effect from the massive registration of used vehicles that were imported to Ukraine from the EU in 2015-2019. The drop in chemical imports is a negative development that might indicate a drop in the purchase of fertilizers by Ukrainian farmers,” Evgeniya Akhtyrko of Concorde Capital said in a note.
“Exports are being driven by agricultural products. On the other hand, the drop in metal exports restrained goods export growth. We are observing the current developments, both in the global and domestic economies, in order to formulate our vision on Ukraine’s external trade in 2020,” Akhtyrko added.
Slowing the devaluation of the hryvnia, Ukraine experienced a trade surplus in January​, reports State Statistics Service. For Ukraine, a net energy importer, low oil and gas prices helped to boost the trade surplus to $138mn. European natural gas prices are at a 10-year low and oil prices have fallen in half since January. Exports to China, Ukraine’s top trading partner, hit $448mn in January – a 79% increase y/y. Last year, Ukraine exported $51bn worth of goods, and imported $61bn.
28​ UKRAINE Country Report​ April 2018 ​ ​www.intellinews.com