Page 27 - UKRRptApr20

5.2​ Balance of payments
The impact of the crisis on Ukraine's balance of payment will be from neutral to possible positive due to the large decline in prices of energy, which prevails in Ukrainian imports and a slight fall in food prices, which account for 50% of the country's overall exports, Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Oleh Churiy has said.
Plummeting oil and gas prices are expected to cut in half Ukraine’s bill for energy imports this year​, Sologub calculates. The energy bill could be $6bn – half of last year’s $12bn. After a mild winter, European natural gas prices are at decade lows. The price of Brent oil has fallen in half this year, to $27 a barrel. With Russia and Saudi Arabia locked in war over market share, Citibank and Goldman Sachs predict that oil could fall to $20 a barrel in coming weeks. Energy last year accounted for 20% of Ukraine’s imports.
Ukraine’s current account (C/A) switched to a $159mn deficit in February from a surplus of $722mn in January, ​the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reported on March 31. The external trade deficit enlarged to $871mn from $142mn in January. The goods trade deficit amounted to $871mn (vs. a deficit of 142mn in January). In addition, the surplus of primary income balance dropped to $207mn from $408mn in January.
Goods exports grew 1.2% y/y to $3.6bn (vs. 2.2% y/y growth in January). The weaker growth was mostly due to a slowdown in food exports (1.4% y/y growth in February vs. 14.3% y/y growth in January). The exports of mineral products increased 14.1% y/y, and machinery exports grew 12.1% y/y. Meanwhile, metal exports declined 2.0% y/y (vs. a 26.4% y/y fall in January).
27​ UKRAINE Country Report​ April 2018 ​ ​www.intellinews.com