Page 25 - UKRRptApr20

5.0​ External Sector & Trade
Balance of payments
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Current account balance, USD bln
-12.8
-1.7
-3
-10.2
-14.3
-16.5
-4.6
-0.2
-3.5
-2.4
-4.5
-4.7
% GDP
-7.1%
-1.5%
-2.2%
-6.3%
-8.1%
-9.0%
-3.4%
-0.2%
-3.7%
-2.2%
-3.4%
-3.2%
Financial account balance, USD bln
9.7
-12
8
7.8
10.1
18.6
-9.1
0.6
4.7
5
7.4
4
% GDP
5.4%
-10.2%
5.9%
4.8%
5.8%
10.1%
-6.8%
0.6%
5.0%
4.5%
5.6%
2.7%
FDI net, USD bln
9.9
4.7
5.8
7
7.2
4.1
0.3
3
3.3
2.6
2.4
2.5
% of GDP
5.5%
4.0%
4.2%
4.3%
4.1%
2.2%
0.2%
3.3%
3.5%
2.3%
1.8%
1.7%
Gross NBU reserves (eop), USD bln
31.5
26.5
34.6
31.8
24.5
20.4
7.5
13.3
15.5
18.8
20.8
20.5
Monetary and banking indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Source: SP Advisory
Ukraine’s trade make up developed between November and January with the export destinations diversifying significantly, but the import partners becoming more concentrated.
Ukraine’s main trade partner remains China, which came from nowhere last year to become the most important of all. Ukraine continues to run trade deficits with all its main partners and a $200,000 deficit with China in the first month of the year, the most recent data available.
Russia continues to Ukraine second biggest source of imports accounting for 10.4% of the total, however its importance as an export destination has been falling steadily in recent years from 10% in 2017 to only 4.5% in January 2020, falling to sixth place from second place in November when it accounted for 11.6%.
Ukraine is successfully diversifying it export market, even if the imports of good changes much less. One noticeable new entry for exports was Turkey that leap to second place in importance after China with a 6.8% share of exports in January, up from 3.7% in November.
Poland is another increasingly important trade partner now accounting for 6.5% of all exports and in third place, and is also the fourth more important source of imports. Indeed, Turkey is one of the few important markets where Ukraine actually runs a trade surplus of about $100,000 in case in January. Trade with Poland, on the other hand, is almost exactly balanced.
25​ UKRAINE Country Report​ April 2018 ​ ​www.intellinews.com