Page 12 - Uzbek Outlook 2022

The growth in the public debt is associated with the sourcing of additional external borrowings. These

funds will primarily be channelled towards financing responses to the consequences of the COVID-19

pandemic and supporting the economy and the population.

According to the World Bank’s Autumn 2021 Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, the government

debt of Uzbekistan is set to amount to 42.5% of GDP in 2022 and 42.2% in 2023.

4.0 Real Economy

4.1 Retail

The Uzbek retail market is becoming increasingly attractive. The supermarket sector in particular has
been singled out as “ready to boom”. The introduction of organised retail has led to rapid
development.

Finance minister Timur Ishmetov noted that there were rapid advances because retail in Uzbekistan
is one of the few sectors with no state presence. The government doesn’t own stores and
restaurants. They can move ahead fast.

The country’s total annual retail market volume is estimated at between $6bn and $8bn, of which
supermarkets —or “organised retail”— make up between just 7% and 10%. This share, according to
experts, is set to at least triple to 30% in the next five years. Retail turnover reached Uzbekistani som
(UZS) 167,026bn ($15.6bn) in the first nine months of this year, according to investment bank
Bluestone, up 9.8% y/y. By November, annual growth stood at 10.5%.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has invested $40mn to take a
stake in Korzinka, one of the biggest supermarket chains in Uzbekistan, while giant French grocer
Carrefour became the first international retailer to enter the Uzbek market last year, intending to
invest $100m.

Korzinka, which accounts for half of all supermarket turnover in the country, anticipates expanding its
chain from 68 to 150 stores by 2025. Carrefour has opened three stores and has plans to open six
more by year-end. The biggest expansion is expected from Makro, Uzbekistan’s current leader by
number of stores, with 109 stores, mainly supermarkets and express outlets. Makro plans to have
between 800 and 1,000 stores in Uzbekistan in the next five years, according to its chief executive,
Roman Sayfulin.

The latest addition to the increasingly hot Uzbek retail sector, Ukraine and Moldova's largest online

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