Page 6 - Uzbek Outlook 2022

2.0 Political outlook

In geopolitics, the re-elected Mirziyoyev is not expected to move far from the strategy long pursued by his
predecessor, the late Islam Karimov, namely “taking the middle road”, rather than siding with major powers
in key affairs.

Tashkent is cautiously strengthening relations with the European Union. Uzbekistan and the EU in the
coming year will hold events including a meeting of the Uzbekistan-EU Parliamentary Cooperation
Committee, the European Union-Central Asia ministerial meeting and an EU-Central Asia tourism forum.

Mirziyoyev’s first official trip after his election victory was to Russia. Vladimir Putin remarked: “Uzbekistan is
not just our close neighbour, it is also an ally—this is exactly how we treat Uzbekistan. It is a large regional
country with which we are connected in many ways—both historically and today.”

Much of the political situation in Uzbekistan will very much depend on how events further unfold in
Afghanistan. The social unrest seen across Kazakhstan at the start of the new year might also give officials
pause for thought as to how quickly, and in what fashion, more democratic and economic rights can be
delivered.

Uzbekistan’s relations with the Taliban have been assessed by political analysts as friendly, evidenced by a
number of bilateral negotiations between official figures.

The Taliban leadership promised “not to shoot a single bullet” towards its neighbour. Tashkent is proving
helpful in the Taliban’s appeal for the unlocking of Afghan capital frozen abroad to help ward off an
economic and humanitarian crisis, though Tashkent’s voice is only one of many in these matters.
Uzbekistan clearly doesn’t want to see Afghanistan, on its doorstep, sliding into catastrophe and chaos.
And a stable Afghanistan is vital to Uzbekistan’s hopes to build up trade and investment with South Asia.

One political event scheduled to take place in Uzbekistan in the coming year is a summit of the
Organisation of Turkic States. The country will also host the regular meeting of the military department
heads of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) states.

3.0 Macro economy

Uzbekistan’s macroeconomic development in 2022 should be founded on gradual improvements in
external and internal indicators, as long as no significant external risks come to pass. The US Federal

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