Page 11 - AfrElec Week 31 2021

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major cities experience even higher biases.
Due to variable microclimates created by
diverse topography, satellite solar irradiation
estimates for sites nestled in highlands,
valleys, or next to lakes can be biased by up
to 20%. The findings are in line with kWh
Analytics’ inaugural 2020 Solar Generation
Index Report, which found that that 25%
of U.S. solar projects surveyed missed
their 3-year forecasted production targets
by over 10%. The American solar risk
management firm attributed this result in
Eskom’s Group Capital Division. “This is our contractors, exceeding Eskom’s local part to overreliance on biased satellite data for
an investment that will serve generations of skills development target of 3071. More production estimates.
the people of South Africa and power the significantly, over 60% of the beneficiaries CrossBoundary Energy’s report goes
economy for at least the next half-century.” were local residents and from Limpopo on to say that, as a result of systems
The commercial operation status means province. underperforming their production estimates,
technical compliance to statutory, safety and CI clients in African metropolitan areas could
legal requirements have all been met. The unit SOL AR fail to realise 4-5% of their projected savings
was officially declared commercial after the from solar, while those outside major cities
completion of the unit optimisation, control Solar expansion in Africa risk savings reductions up to 20%.
demonstration, as well as the 72-hour and The risk is even higher for off-grid solar
the 30-day reliability run, which have put all driven by falling equipment customers, such as mining companies, which
performance guarantees to effect. Unit 1 was use generators to supplement renewable
first synchronised to the national grid on 27 prices power and could carry unexpected increases
August 2019 and reached the full load of 794 in fuel costs to offset unmet power needs.
MW on 5 December 2019. During this testing Declining solar equipment costs continue to For investors, such systemic
and optimisation phase, Unit 1 contributed drive African businesses toward solar energy underperformance can reduce the projected
intermittent power to the country’s electricity solutions. IRR by up to 1% for urban sites, while diverse
supply. A report by CrossBoundary Energy titled, portfolios of urban and rural assets could see
It was on 23 August 2015 when the first Measuring Solar Irradiation in Africa shows deviations from projected IRR of greater than
unit, Unit 6, attained commercial operation how the biases in the estimation of solar 1%.
status. Over the following 6 years, four other production in Africa can lead to up to a 20% Phuthi Tsatsi, co-author and Business
units were built and brought to commercial reduction in savings for African businesses Development Associate at CrossBoundary
status, providing electricity to the national and a 1-2% reduction in the internal rate Energy says, “Until we all recognise the
grid. of return (IRR) for solar developers and shortcomings of how we currently forecast,
The Medupi Power Station uses direct investors. the growth of the African distributed
dry-cooling systems due to the water scarcity Lenny Matei, co-author and Senior Project solar market as a whole – and its promise
in the Lephalale area, and is the fourth largest Engineer at CrossBoundary Energy, says, “For to neutralise the carbon footprint of the
coal-fired plant and the largest dry-cooled most commercial and industrial (CI) clients, continent’s growing industries – rests on a
power station in the world. The power plant a major factor in awarding projects is the fractured foundation.
incorporates super critical technology, which electricity tariff and resulting savings offered.
is able to operate at higher temperatures than An often-overlooked factor is the estimated RENEWABLES
Eskom’s earlier generation of boilers and solar irradiation on site, which can have a
turbines. Importantly, the technology enables significant impact forecasted production and, Nigeria’s energy deficit
the power plant to operate with greater thus, expected savings.”
efficiency, resulting in better use of natural A statement to newsrooms indicates that presents huge prospects
resources such as water and coal, and will CrossBoundary Energy operates solar plants
have improved environmental performance. for businesses in Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and for renewables
At its peak during construction, the Rwanda, and has a pipeline of over 300MW of
Medupi project directly employed more projects across Africa. The huge on-grid energy deficit and low
than 18 000 people on building activities, An analysis of two operational sites, in electricity output in Nigeria portends great
while another 2000 supporting employees Nairobi, Kenya and Accra, Ghana, revealed prospect for emerging renewable and cleaner
were employed on site. The capital cost of that actual irradiation – measured by project energy companies, Chief Executive Officer,
the project is ZAR 122bn so far, and Eskom ground-based measurement systems, deviated Engie Energy Access Nigeria Limited, Mr.
expects to spend in total under ZAR 135bn on 3-5% from the satellite data widely accepted Bankole Cardoso, has stated.
completion of balance of plant. as accurate for making production forecasts Currently, the campaign in pursuit of
Since the construction of the project, during solar design. This translated into achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050
Eskom has been working with the nearby an equal deviation of 3-5% in solar power through a shift away from fossil and other
communities in the Limpopo province. More production estimates, while all other factors dirty fuels to renewables and other cleaner
than 4600 artisans, technicians, engineers are held constant. and environmentally friendly energy sources,
and managers were formally trained by The report also found that sites outside of is beginning to attract heavy investments to

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