Page 5 - AfrOil Week 29

AfrOil COMMENTARY AfrOil

He added: “The costs of repairing the pipeline security arrangements in oil regions to be under
network and surface equipment and of well the protection of a professional, disciplined and
workovers will run to the billions of dinars.” independent security force,” it said in a state-
ment on July 18.
Two steps back
Conditions did appear to be improving some- Outside forces
what as of last month. The allegations of third-party involvement are
The peace talks brokered by the EU earlier in hardly surprising, given that Libya’s second civil
the year gained momentum after GNA troops war has drawn the attention of other players on
wrested control of some territory back from the diplomatic stage.
LNA and its allies, and NOC, which is nominally One of the key players is Turkey, which is
independent of the rival factions, reported that it widely known to be a supporter of GNA. Ankara
“
was conducting discussions on the resumption provided the troops, equipment and other types
of oil production. of support that allowed Tripoli to gain territory
Moreover, the company actually managed back from LNA in May and June. Intensified
to bring some of its assets back online. In early Another is Russia, which has backed LNA
June, it took the step of lifting force majeure at – and which appears to be responsible for the conflict and
two of its largest oilfields, Sharara and El Feel. reports of mercenary involvement with PFG.
Within just a few days, though, NOC had Moscow is a supporter of the Syrian regime, third-party
declared force majeure again. It explained its and it is believed to have close ties to the Wagner
decision by saying that armed troops from the Group. involvement could
Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG), a faction Meanwhile, the European Union is paying bring Libyan oil
allied with LNA, had stormed the two fields and close attention to the conflict, not least because
reinstated the blockade. two of its member states (Greece and Cyprus) production levels
Since then, the company has tried to con- have raised objections to Turkey’s maritime
tinue negotiations in the hope of restarting pro- accords with Libya. The US and NATO are also down even further
duction. In early July, it also attempted to resume monitoring developments carefully, as is the
crude exports from Es Sider, a port on the north- UN, which has recognised GNA as the legiti-
ern coast. So far, though, its efforts have failed. mate government of Libya.
As of press time, NOC had renewed its declara- The UAE is also playing a role in the situa-
tions of force majeure, saying it could not ensure tion. The Middle Eastern country has been sup-
oil flows from key fields or exports from Es Sider portive of LNA, and last week NOC accused it of
and other Mediterranean terminals, owing to masterminding the latest shutdowns at oilfields
the incursions made by PFG forces. and export terminals. “NOC has been informed
But the company has not just complained that the instructions to shut down production
about PFG’s incursions. It has noted armed were given to [Haftar’s forces] by the United
clashes between PFG troops and members of Arab Emirates,” the company said in a statement
other militias allied with LNA. Additionally, it dated July 12.
has reported the presence of outside forces – Under these circumstances, peace talks are
namely, mercenaries from Syria and Sudan, as not likely to regain much traction in the near
well as Russia’s private Wagner group – at Libyan future. Rather, Libya appears to be headed for a
oilfields and export terminals. round of intensified conflict, with multiple third
“In light of these serious developments, NOC parties aiding and abetting the combatants. If so,
stresses the importance of evicting Wagner crude production levels could drop even further,
group, Syrian and [Sudanese] Janjaweed merce- leaving Libya – and NOC, which is responsible
naries from its facilities and calls for an end to for collecting oil revenues and distributing them
the militarisation of its installations under inter- among the regions of the country – even more
national supervision and the restructuring of short of money and resources. ™

Week 29 22•July•2020 www. NEWSBASE .com P5