Page 22 - RusRPTJul19

Shortly after the government announced it was increasing retirement ages in July 2018 the share saying they would participate in protests rose to 23%, but in March 2018 only 6% of Russians said they would join economic protests.
3.0 Macro Economy 3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Russian GDP growth slowed to 0.2% in May from a revised rate of 1.7% in the previous month, the Russian Economy Ministry said on June 21. The Russian central bank said this month it had lowered its 2019 GDP forecast to 1.0-1.5% from 1.2-1.7%.
The Russian central bank expects gross domestic product (GDP) growth to accelerate to 0.5–1.0% in April–June and to 0.8–1.3% in July–September from 0.5% in January–March, the central bank said on June 24.
The State Statistics Service published a breakdown of GDP growth for 1Q19 using the production approach. The headline growth figure remained unchanged from the preliminary estimate of 0.5% y/y, which marked a slowdown from the 2.7% y/y growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2018.
The deceleration was attributable to agriculture (down 1.2% y/y compared with 2.3% y/y growth in the fourth quarter of 2018), wholesale and retail trade (down 3.0% y/y, compared with 2.2% y/y growth in the fourth quarter of 2018) and real estate (down 3.5% y/y versus 0.3% y/y growth). Mining and quarrying also slowed (up 4.6% y/y compared with 7.7% y/y growth the previous quarter), as did construction (flat versus 4.9% y/y growth).
The main reason for the slowdown in growth in May is the slowdown in industrial production, the ministry points out in the report “A Picture of Business Activity”. In May, the industry grew by only 0.9% per annum, while in April it was 4.6%, and in the first quarter of 2019 it was 2.1%. The manufacturing industry stopped growing altogether - dropped to minus 1% per annum after the April 4.7%. This is partly due to the fact that in May 2019, people in Russia worked two days less than in May 2018. If this factor is excluded, then, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, the increase was 0.6% per annum.
The deterioration in industrial production is expected, but it is unpleasantly surprising that monthly statistics are too unstable, according to Alfa Bank analyst review: from five months of this year, three months, the industry grew by 1% per annum, while the other two grew to 4% per annum. In the processing, the scatter is the same, which makes one cautious in assessing the prospects for economic growth in Russia, conclude analysts at Alfa Bank.
The deceleration continues and the growth of output in mining is up to 2.8% per annum in May, after 4.2% in April. Due to Russia's obligations under an agreement with OPEC countries, oil production is slowing down to a one-year minimum of 1% per annum.
In addition to industry, transport and trade affected the slowdown in GDP
22 RUSSIA Country Report July 2019 www.intellinews.com