Page 23 - RusRPTJul19

growth. In May, growth in freight turnover slowed from April's 2.5% per annum to 1.1%, while retail growth slowed down by 0.2 percentage points over the month and amounted to 1.6%.
The increase in VAT not only affected demand, but also determined the dynamics of stocks - their growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 and a decrease in the first quarter of 2019, explains Dmitry Polevoy, chief economist at the RDIF, but there is a slight improvement.
Despite the low growth rates in the first months of the year, the Ministry of Economic Development is optimistic. GDP growth in June will be higher than in May, says Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin (hereinafter his quotes on Interfax), and the current weak results do not give reason to expect a recession.
Key macroeconomic indicators "
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2M19 2019e 2020e
GDP 0.7 -2.5 -0.2 1.6 2.3 - 1.5 2.3
Industrial output 1.7 -0.8 1.3 2.1 2.9 2.6 2.7 3.1
Retail trade 2.7 -10 -4.6 1.3 2.6 1.8 1.7 3.1
Inflation (EOP) 11.4 12.9 5.4 2.5 4.3 5.2 4.2 3.8
Real wages 1.3 -9.5 0.6 2.9 6.8 0.9 3.1 2.8
Current account, $ bn 59.5 69.6 25 35.2 114.9 22.3 105 85
Budget deficit, % of -0.4 -2.5 -3.4 -1.4 2.7 2 2.1 2.3 GDP
RUB/USD (avr) 38.4 61.1 67.1 58.3 62.7 66.6 62.9 63.3
RUB/USD (EOP) 56.2 72.9 60.7 57.6 69.5 65.9 61.7 64.2
Brent $ / bbl (avr) 99 52.4 43.6 54.3 70.8 60.3 75 78
CBR rate 17 11 10 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.5 6.75
Source: Rosstat, BCS GM
23 RUSSIA Country Report July 2019 www.intellinews.com