Page 5 - AsiaElec Week 18 2022

AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec

rises should be limited to 1.5°C, ideally by 2100. Russian oil, despite requests from the US that it
However, this is in doubt, with McKinsey halt imports.
recently saying that global warming was set to India is buying Russian fuels because of lower
exceed 1.7°C, above the IPCC’s target of 1.5°C. prices. Sanctions have raised the risk of buying
This is in spite of current reductions in fos- Russian oil, gas and coal, as Western insurance
sil fuel consumption, to be replaced by cleaner and loans are less available for Russian cargoes.
energy, and net-zero commitments from gov- This means that Indian buyers will only buy at
ernments and corporations. cheaper prices, something that Russia has been
The consultant forecast that fossil fuel con- willing to offer.
sumption would peak by 2030, while renewa- Coal was included in the EU’s fifth package of
bles were projected to grow threefold by 2050, sanctions, announced on April, the first time that
accounting for 50% of power generation globally the EU had targeted Russian energy.
by 2030 and 80-90% by 2050. Since then, the sixth package of sanctions will
Global oil demand is projected to peak in include a proposed ban on Russian oil. EU Com-
2025-27, driven by the uptake of electric vehi- mission President Ursula von der Leyen said that
cles (EVs), while energy supply is set to move it will not be easy, but that “we will make sure that
towards lower-carbon forms, with electricity, we phase out Russian oil in an orderly fashion.”
hydrogen and synfuels accordingly set to play a The main principle will be “to maximise pres-
major role. sure on Russia while minimising the impact on
our economies.”
India’s fuel choice Von der Leyen said crude oil imports would
India has been buying Russian fossil fuels even be phased out over the next six months, while
after the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, refus- refined oil products would not be fully banned
ing to take part in European and US sanctions until the end of 2022.
against Russia.
It imported 1.04mn tonnes in March, the Emissions
highest figure since January 2020, while it could The real problem is not just global carbon emis-
double its imports in the coming year. sions, but emissions by China and India.
Moscow, typically India’s sixth-largest sup- As the International Energy Agency (IEA)
plier of coking and thermal coal, could start announced in April, China dominates emissions
offering more competitive prices to Chinese and trends. Energy-related emissions increased in
Indian buyers as European and other customers 2020 and 2021 in China, more than offsetting the
spurn Russia because of sanctions. aggregate decline in the rest of the world during
Across Asia, high gas prices have led to a the same period.
surge in coal demand, which has also pushed up In 2021 alone, China’s energy-related CO2
coal prices. emissions rose above 11.9bn tonnes, accounting
Coal-fired generation in India rose by 11% for 33% of the global total of 36.3bn tonnes.
in 2021, green think-tank Ember said in its Similarly, in India, CO2 emissions rebounded
Global Electricity Review, despite accompanying strongly in 2021 to rise above 2019 levels, driven
expansion of renewables. by growth in coal use for electricity generation.
India has also increased its imports of Globally, coal accounted for over 40% of the

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