Page 46 - Central & Southeast Outlook 2020

The main factors pushing up prices will come from the dynamics of wages and salaries and administratively regulated prices, according to Raiffeisen Research. At the same time, Bulgaria has structural labour market issues due to the noticeable shortage of skilled labour in key sectors such as industry, education and tourism, which are holding back economic growth.
1.4 ​Macro - Croatia
Croatia key economic figures and forecasts
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2021f
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 44.6 46.6 49 51.4 53.7 55.7 57.4
Real GDP (% yoy) 2.4 3.5 3.1 2.7 2.8 2.5 1.8
Industrial output (% yoy) 2.7 5.3 1.4 -1 1.5 2 1.5
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 16.3 13.1 11.2 8.4 7.1 6.6 6.3
Nominal industrial wages (% yoy) -4.1 2 4.2 5.5 5.8 4.3 3
Producer prices (avg, % yoy) -3.9 -4.1 2.1 2.3 0.7 1.3 1.8
Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) -0.5 -1.1 1.1 1.5 0.8 1.4 1.8
Consumer prices (eop, % yoy) -0.6 0.2 1.2 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.5
General budget balance (% of GDP) -3.3 -1.1 0.8 0.3 -0.5 -0.8 -0.4
Public debt (% of GDP) 83.7 80.2 77.8 74.2 72.4 70.2 68.2
Current account balance (% of GDP) 3.3 2.1 3.4 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.5
Official FX reserves (EUR bn) 13.8 13.5 15.7 17.5 22 22.3 22.4
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 108.1 95.9 89.2 83.1 80.1 78.9 78.9
EUR/HRK (avg) 7.61 7.53 7.46 7.42 7.42 7.4 7.43
USD/HRK (avg) 6.86 6.81 6.62 6.29 6.57 6.55 6.34 Source: National sources, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Croatia’s economy expanded by 2.9% y/y in the third quarter of 2019, accelerating from 2.4% y/y recorded in the previous quarter. But this is seen as something of a last gasp​before a slowing of growth anticipated international financial institutions (IFIs).
46​ CESE Outlook 2020​ ​ ​www.intellinews.com