Page 44 - Central & Southeast Outlook 2020

persistent political instability,​posting decent growth of around 3% in 2019. This trend should continue in 2020, according to international financial institutions.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) set its projection for 2020 GDP growth at 3%, but noted that risks to this forecast are related mainly to uncertainty about reforms to improve the business climate and standards of governance.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was more pessimistic, expecting economic growth to slow down to 2.6% in 2020 from an estimated 2.8% for 2019. The World Bank was significantly more optimistic, projecting the 2020 GDP growth at 3.4%.
Bosnia’s commitment to gaining EU candidate status is seen as a key reason to advance the country’s structural reform agenda. If the new government implements the required reforms, the World Bank expects a moderate acceleration in growth, with higher investment in infrastructure.
The country could also commit to reforms if it starts talks with the IMF on a new loan deal to replace the existing one, which was put on hold in 2017 as political disagreements have frozen key reforms.
Meanwhile, Bosnia’s unemployment is at its lowest level in a decade, mainly thanks to a rise in demand for labour and a likely reduction in the working-age population.
Despite the improvements in the labour market, Bosnia’s employment is still low compared to the region and, according to the World Bank, the country should address structural reforms to accelerate gains in job creation.
In 2019, average consumer inflation in Bosnia is expected to reach 1.2%, down from 1.6% in 2018. Consumer prices will slightly accelerate their growth pace in 2020 to 1.4%, according to the IMF.
1.3 ​Macro - Bulgaria
Bulgaria key economic figures and forecasts
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2021f
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 45.7 48.6 52.3 55.9 60.5 64.2 67.7
Real GDP (% yoy) 4 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.5 2.8 2.9
Industrial output (% yoy) 2.9 2.7 3.4 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.5
44​ CESE Outlook 2020​ ​ ​www.intellinews.com