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domestic energy production capacities.
As a result, the current account deficit is expected to gradually contract to some 5% of GDP by the end of 2021, covered predominantly by FDI inflows. However, downside risks arise from slow growth in Albania’s key trading partners in the EU, especially Italy. According to Raiffeisen, domestic political disputes could also weigh on the economy, while the financial effects of the earthquakes on the economy are not yet clear.
Inflation is expected to increase by 2% in 2019 and to speed up to 2.4% in 2020, following an inflation of 2% in 2018.
1.2 Macro - Bosnia & Herzegovina
Key economic figures and forecasts
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2021f
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 14.6 15.3 16 16.8 17.2 18 18.8
Real GDP (% yoy) 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.2 1.9 2.3
Industrial output (% yoy) 2.6 4.3 3.1 1.6 -5.5 2.5 3.2
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 27.7 25.4 20.5 18.4 15.7 14.8 14.1
Nominal industrial wages (% yoy) 0.6 1.5 2.6 3.5 3 2.8 3
Producer prices (avg, % yoy) 0.6 -2.3 3 3.9 0.5 1.5 1.5
Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) -1 -1.1 1.3 1.4 0.5 1.1 1.2
Consumer prices (eop, % yoy) -1.3 -0.2 1.4 1.6 0.2 1.3 1.4
General budget balance (% of GDP) 0.7 1.2 2.6 2.3 1.5 1 0.5
Public debt (% of GDP) 41.9 40.4 36.1 34.9 34.2 31.5 32.7
Current account balance (% of GDP) -5.3 -4.7 -4.7 -4.2 -5 -4.5 -4.4
Official FX reserves (EUR bn) 4.4 4.9 5.4 6 6.3 6.5 6.6
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 72.2 72.2 68.5 66.8 65.5 63.5 61.1
EUR/BAM (avg) 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96
USD/BAM (avg) 1.76 1.77 1.73 1.66 1.73 1.73 1.67 Source: National sources, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Bosnia & Herzegovina’s economy remains resilient to the
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