Page 41 - Central & Southeast Outlook 2020

reinforce the party and President Aleksandar Vucic in power than to give the opposition any real chance at ousting them. It’s a similar story in Montenegro where elections are also coming up in 2020; the two countries may see protests but it is unlikely there will be any real change.
For all six Western Balkan countries, the primary political goal remains entry to the EU. This got more difficult in 2019 when French President Emmanuel Macron talked of no more engagement until the process is rethought. EU leaders therefore failed to set a date for Albania and North Macedonia to start election talks at their summit in October 2019, wth repercussions not just in the two countries directly affected — where reforms could stall if a firm date isn’t forthcoming at the next summit in May — but also concerns in Montenegro and Serbia that their accessions could be delayed too.
Croatia holds the rotating presidency of the European Council in the first half of 2020, and is hoping this will lead to its further integration within the bloc. Both Croatia and Bulgaria are working actively towards entry to the eurozone, with hopes of joining both the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM2) and the European Banking Union in the near future.
Consolidation is underway in the banking sector across the region. The ownership profile of Southeast Europe’s banks has changed significantly since the international economic and financial crisis of 10 years ago. As banks from the crisis-hit Greek banking sector exit the region and others such as France’s Society Generale rethink their strategy, others — notably Hungary’s OTP — are targeting Europe’s southeast frontier.
Among the increasingly powerful local players are Romania’s Banca Transilvania, and Slovenia’s second largest bank Nova KBM (NKBM), which has backing from Apollo Global Management and the EBRD, and bought local rival Abanka at the end of 2019.Looking ahead to 2020, Serbia’s second-largest lender Komercijalna Banka is currently on the block, and negotiations with bidders are set to continue during the first months of the year.
1.0 ​Macro
1.1 ​Macro - Albania
Albania key economic figures and forecasts
41​ CESE Outlook 2020​ ​ ​www.intellinews.com