Page 42 - Central & Southeast Outlook 2020
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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2021f
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 10.2 10.7 11.6 12.7 13.7 14.4 14.8
Real GDP (% yoy) 2.2 3.3 3.8 4.1 2.5 2.8 3
Industrial output (% yoy) 3 1 2.5 6 4 3 2
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 17.1 15.2 13.8 12.3 11.3 11 11
Nominal industrial wages (% yoy) 8 3 1.9 3.7 3.6 3.4 2
Producer prices (avg, % yoy) -2.1 -1.5 1 1 2 2 1.8
Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) 1.9 1.3 2 2 1.5 2.2 2.3
Consumer prices (eop, % yoy) 2 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.4 2 2.2
General budget balance (% of GDP) -4 -2.5 -2 -1.6 -2 -2.2 -2
Public debt (% of GDP) 72.7 71 69.9 69 66.5 65 63
Current account balance (% of GDP) -10.8 -9.3 -6.9 -6.8 -7.1 -7 -6.8
Official FX reserves (EUR bn) 2.9 2.9 3 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 73.2 73.7 70 65.9 60.4 57.8 55.9
EUR/ALL (avg) 139.7 137.3 134.2 127.6 123.1 123.7 126.3
USD/ALL (avg) 126 124.2 119 108.1 109.1 109.5 107.7 Source: National sources, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
A deadly earthquake that killed more than 50 people and rendered thousands homeless has thrown out projections for 2020,as the government starts to rebuild infrastructure in affected areas which include the country’s main port city Durres.
Even before the quake, the Albanian government was forecasting that the country’s economic growth will decelerate slightly to 4.1% in 2020, from 4.3% projected for 2019. The Albanian economy expanded strongly by 4.1% and 3.8% in 2018 and 2017, respectively.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects 3.9% economic growth in Albania in 2020, while the European Commission projects the Albanian economy will expand by 3.7% in 2020.
Economic activities are expected to rebound in the next two years on the back of a continuing solid increase in household spending. Risks to this forecast are mainly on the downside due to the deteriorating external environment and the tense political climate in the country. The conclusion of large energy projects is expected to result in a moderation of construction-related imports and an expansion of
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