Page 51 - Central & Southeast Outlook 2020

2.9pp to economic growth, according to the World Bank.
Traditionally, the main drivers of economic growth in the Adriatic state are the construction, transport, tourism and energy sectors. Public investment is also expected to support the economy. Household consumption, supported by a strong tourism season and positive developments on the labour market, is also expected to push up the GDP .
According to the EBRD, Montenegro’s economic growth could be affected negatively by weaker growth in the EU. However, thanks to the expected private investment in tourism and energy, which is likely to stay high, the EBRD sees Montenegro’s economic growth at 3.4% in 2020.
1.9 ​Macro - Romania
Romania key economic figures and forecasts
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2021f
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 160.3 170.4 187.8 202.9 219.1 228.9 235.8
Real GDP (% yoy) 3.9 4.8 7.1 4 3.8 3 2
Industrial output (% yoy) 2.8 3.1 7.8 3.5 -1.8 2 2
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 6.8 5.9 4.9 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.6
Nominal industrial wages (% yoy) 6.6 8.7 11.3 31.6 11 8.5 5
Producer prices (avg, % yoy) -2.2 -1.8 3.5 5 4 3.3 3.3
Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) -0.6 -1.5 1.3 4.6 3.8 3.2 3
Consumer prices (eop, % yoy) -0.9 -0.5 3.3 3.3 4 3 3
General budget balance (% of GDP) -0.6 -2.6 -2.6 -3 -4.3 -4 -5
Public debt (% of GDP) 37.8 37.3 35.1 35 36.3 37.9 41.2
Current account balance (% of GDP) -1.2 -2.1 -3.2 -4.5 -5 -5.5 -5.6
Official FX reserves (EUR bn) 35.6 37.9 37 36.9 38.6 39.5 39.7
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 57.4 54.5 51.9 49 49.3 49.8 50.5
EUR/RON (avg) 4.45 4.49 4.57 4.65 4.75 4.89 5.01
USD/RON (avg) 4.01 4.06 4.05 3.94 4.21 4.33 4.28 Source: National sources, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
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