Page 53 - Central & Southeast Outlook 2020

correction — while banks still have enough forex loans on their balance sheets to abstain from encouraging such a move.
The current account deficit (CAD) remains under pressure from weakening external demand and strong import growth underpinned largely by expansionary fiscal policies. On a 12-month rolling basis the CAD has been close to 5% of GDP since May, driven by increasing trade deficit (up 23% y/y in January August).
Rating agency Fitch expects the deficit to remain around 5% of GDP during the forecast period (compared with the current BBB median of 1%), assuming no sharp fiscal deterioration and a gradual recovery in external demand by 2021.
1.10 ​Macro - Serbia
Serbia key economic figures and forecasts
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2021f
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 35.7 36.7 39.2 42.8 46.5 49.4 52.2
Real GDP (% yoy) 1.8 3.3 2 4.4 3 3 3
Industrial output (% yoy) 8.2 4.7 3.5 1.3 3.5 1.8 3
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 17.7 15.3 13 12.7 10.5 10 10
Nominal industrial wages (% yoy) 2.9 4 4 4 2.3 3 3
Producer prices (avg, % yoy) 0.2 -0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 1 1.5
Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) 1.4 1.2 3.2 2 1.9 1.9 2.1
Consumer prices (eop, % yoy) 1.5 1.6 3 2 1.7 2 2.2
General budget balance (% of GDP) -3.7 -1.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 -0.7 -1
Public debt (% of GDP) 70 67.8 57.9 53.8 50.1 47.5 47.5
Current account balance (% of GDP) -3.5 -2.9 -5.3 -4.9 -6.9 -5.1 -5.7
Official FX reserves (EUR bn) 10.4 10.2 9.9 11.3 11.8 11.5 11.5
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 73.4 72.2 65.7 60.3 55.9 52.7 50.2
EUR/RSD (avg) 120.7 123.1 121.3 118.2 117.8 117.8 118
USD/RSD (avg) 108.8 111.3 107.7 100.2 104.5 104.2 100.6 Source: National sources, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
53​ CESE Outlook 2020​ ​ ​www.intellinews.com