Page 55 - Central & Southeast Outlook 2020

Source: National sources, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
The Slovenian government expects GDP growth of 3% in 2020. ​The GDP growth is forecasted to average 2.7% in both 2020 and 2021, according to the European Commission’s more modest forecast, with the growth expected to continue to be driven by domestic demand, with a negative contribution from net exports over the forecast horizon.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) kept Slovenia’s GDP projection unchanged at 2.8% for 2020.
Investment growth is projected to continue at around the same pace as in 2019, mainly driven by construction investment. In the public sector, the uptake of EU funds is forecast to increase further as the programming period draws to a close.
Inflation is projected to increase slightly in 2020 and 2021.
At 1.8%, HICP inflation is projected to be lower in 2019 than it was in 2018, mainly due to the slowdown in energy and food price inflation. Inflation is expected to modestly increase to 1.9% in 2020 and 2.0% in 2021.
2.0​ ​Politics
2.1 ​Politics - Albania
The biggest question facing Albania in 2020 is whether EU countries will set a date for the start of accession talks at the EU Council summit in May 2020.
Albania, along with North Macedonia, failed to obtain a date to start EU accession talks during the previous EU summit in October 2019, due to the veto by French President Emmanuel Macron. Macron talked of a rethink of the enlargement process, but other EU member states have been pushing for a green light at the next summit.
Judicial, administration and electoral reforms are the priorities for the country in its EU accession path. The country also should strengthen the fight against crime, corruption and drug trafficking. Another failure to secure a date to start talks would have negative political repercussions at home and most likely set back the reform process.
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