Page 54 - Central & Southeast Outlook 2020
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Serbia’s economy is expected to continue posting robust growth in 2020with the pace seen accelerating compared to 2019, mainly thanks to the government’s investments in infrastructure, wage and pension hikes and strong domestic demand.
The government increased public sector wages on November 1 and provided a one-off payment to pensioners. It plans to again increase public sector wages as well as pensions as of January 1, 2020. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has noted that these measures do not jeopardise fiscal sustainability. These hikes should further boost domestic demand, which is one of the main drivers for economic growth.
According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Serbia’s GDP will expand 3.5% in 2020, speeding from an estimated 3.2% growth in 2019. The IMF had a more optimistic projection that GDP will grow 4% in 2020 and in 2021. The Serbian government expects even higher growth in the next few years of 4.4% a year.
Serbia’s inflation is expected to accelerate to 2.2% in 2020 from 2% in 2019, according to the IMF.
1.11 Macro - Slovenia
Key economic figures and forecasts
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2021f
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 38.9 40.4 43 45.8 48.2 50.2 52.5
Real GDP (% yoy) 2.2 3.1 4.8 4.1 2.5 2.2 2.5
Industrial output (% yoy) 5.6 7.1 7.7 4.9 3.3 2.5 4.9
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 9 8 6.6 5.1 4.3 4.4 4.4
Nominal industrial wages (% yoy) 2.1 2.1 3.2 4 3.9 3.8 3.8
Producer prices (avg, % yoy) -0.5 -1.4 1.3 1.9 1.2 1.4 1.5
Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) -0.8 -0.2 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.9
Consumer prices (eop, % yoy) -0.6 0.6 1.9 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9
General budget balance (% of GDP) -2.8 -1.9 0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7
Public debt (% of GDP) 82.6 78.7 74.1 70.4 66.6 63.5 60.1
Current account balance (% of GDP) 3.8 4.8 6.1 5.7 5.4 5 5.3
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 118.8 109.7 100.5 92 95.1 95.9 96.5
54 CESE Outlook 2020 www.intellinews.com
