Page 5 - DMEA Week 17 2022
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DMEA                                         COMMENTARY                                               DMEA












































                           Meanwhile, there are certainly political  Potential conflicts
                         matters in play. Worley’s statement includes a  However, it is not at all clear that Nigeria can pur-
                         graphic that acknowledges Morocco’s claim to  sue both of these projects without conflict.
                         the disputed territory of Western Sahara, as it   This is not for lack of resources. The coun-
                         shows no border between the two. This is not  try’s proven reserves of associated and natural
                         likely to escape the notice of Algeria, which is  gas currently stand at 200 trillion cubic feet (5.7
                         also an IsDB member state.           trillion cubic metres), so they are large enough,
                           Algeria has strongly opposed Morocco’s  theoretically, to keep both NMGP and TSGP
                         assertions of sovereignty over Western Sahara.  running at their full design capacity of 30bn
                         What is more, it has also held its own talks with  cubic metres per year each for a total of 95 years.
                         Nigeria on the construction of a different pipe-  But as noted above, there is a certain amount
                         line that would bring West African gas to Europe  of mutual hostility between Morocco and Alge-
                         – the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), which  ria. These two neighbouring states oppose each
                         would run northward through Nigerian terri-  other on the issue of Western Sahara, and their
                         tory and eastern Niger to Algeria’s Hassi R’Mel  disagreements on this front have sometimes
                         gas field. At Hassi R’Mel, TSGP could then con-  caused problems for third parties.
                         nect to existing gas pipelines that pump Algerian   Spain, for example, had to figure out how to
                         gas to Europe, such as the Medgaz link to Spain  compensate for a reduction in gas supplies last
                         or the TransMed link to Italy.       autumn after Algeria halted shipments through
                           Proposals for the trans-Saharan route were  the GME pipeline, which crosses Moroccan ter-
                         first aired in the 1980s, but the project finally  ritory on its way to the Iberian Peninsula. It is
                         made some serious headway earlier this year.  not difficult to imagine Algiers applying similar
                         In February, the governments of Algeria, Niger  logic and insisting that Abuja disavow TSGP or
                         and Nigeria signed a document called the Dec-  risk NMGP, in which case neither Nigeria (the
                         laration of Niamey outlining their plans for the  intended exporter) nor Europe (the intended
                         development of a $13bn, 4,128-km pipeline to  market) nor any of the transit states would
                         carry gas from Warri in Nigeria’s Delta State  benefit.
                         across Niger and on to Hassi R’Mel.    Again, though, Worley’s statement does not
                           This event led some observers to describe  mention these possibilities. This is not surprising
                         NMGP as essentially defunct, even though Nige-  as contractors cannot be expected to mention all
                         rian and Moroccan officials had discussed that  of the obstacles to their projects in statements
                         project with each other just a few months earlier.  about their initial contract awards. But it is
                         Meanwhile, NNPC has continued to include a  worth considering as discussions of these pro-
                         line in its budget for costs associated with the  jects move forward – and as observers attempt
                         NMGP and given the chances that either plan  to assess which efforts to bring West African gas
                         could fail, it appears to be backing both horses.  to Europe are most likely to succeed.™



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