Page 26 - RusRPTFeb22

3.0 Macro Economy 3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Russia: GDP growth climbs to 5.2% YoY due to low base effects in oil production; consumers stabilise as economy moves closer to an overheated state
The base effects from greater oil production kept Russia’s GDP growth improving for the second month in a row. November GDP was up 5.2% Yoy after 4.8% YoY in October vs. 4.3% YoY in 3Q21. The producer indicators gained pace, while the consumer indicators showed further signs of stabilisation. Higher inflation and fading effects of subsidies pushed the real wages down in October amid deepened divide in the labour market. The worsened epidemiological situation brought fewer drags to the economic performance than we expected. We see more upside risks to the GDP being above our 4.5% YoY forecast this year. Going forward, the labour market constraints and persisting bottlenecks in the global supply chains might bring the economy to an overheated state and weaken the growth momentum. We
26 RUSSIA Country Report February 2022 www.intellinews.com