Page 76 - RusRPTFeb20

look at one country in isolation. Indeed, despite the US’ standoff with Russia, it was the US and its ally Turkey that saw the largest increases in Russian oil imports due to the imposition of US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran.
For the first time, Russia says it will complete the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline without the help of foreign companies​. “The Nord Stream 2 project, which is already 94% complete, will be finished by the Russian side,” Gazprom’s deputy head Elena Burmistrova said on January 28 at the European Gas Conference Vienna. It is unclear how Russia will build the last 6% of the pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany. The Financial Times reports: “Russian officials’ estimates for Nord Stream 2 completion now vary from the end of 2020 to early 2021.”
Russia’s piped gas supplies to Europe are slated to plunge to a five-year low in January​, Interfax reported on January 24 citing transmission data, amid warm weather and record volumes of gas in storage. Gas storage inventories in Europe are near an all-time high, after Russia's gas pipeline monopoly Gazprom​ and other European companies stocked up on supplies last year to safeguard against a potential halt to Russian gas transits via Ukraine on January 1, 2020. A disruption was ultimately avoided, as Gazprom was able to
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The share of Gazprom and Novatek in total European gas imports increased to 47.5% in 2019​. Total imports of gas from the rest of the world to Europe increased almost 8% y/y to 422.6bcm. The share of Russian companies grew 0.8pp to 47.5%. Gazprom’s exports grew 1.7% y/y, but the company’s market share fell 2.5pp to 42.5%. At the same time, LNG producers increased their market share, as LNG deliveries to Europe grew 87% y/y to 76mnt. Qatar was the largest LNG importer, followed by Novatek. LNG producers from the US were the fastest growing group of importers. Norway and Algeria reduced their pipeline and overall deliveries to Europe. The demand for natural gas is currently moderate amid the mild winter in Europe and the large volume of gas in underground gas storage facilities (UGSF). The European UGSF level is currently 80%, close to the historical maximum (the average five-year level is 65%). We expect the company to sell 195bcm of gas in Europe in 2020F, or 2% below the 2019 level. The growing imports of LNG from the US might also have a negative effect on Novatek’s and Gazprom’s export volumes.
Russian state-run energy giant ​Gazprom​ said on January 24 ​it expects January natural gas exports to Europe to decline by a quarter year-on-year to around 13-13.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) due to warm weather, Reuters reported​ citing Interfax. The Russian news agency said its January volumes could be the lowest in five years, citing data from Gazprom and European companies.
The Energy Information Administration of the US Energy Department has raised the forecast for an average price of the Brent oil blend in 2020 to US $64.83 per barrel from $60.51​, according to a monthly report released late on Tuesday. The WTI price forecast was raised to $59.25 from $55.01. The authority expects Brent to cost $67.53 in 2021 and WTI to $62.03.
Offering future competition to Russia’s new TurkStream, the energy ministers of Greece, Israel and Cyprus signed an agreement in Athens on January 2 to build a $7bn, 1,900 km gas line connecting Israeli and Cypriot gas fields​ with Greece. Designed for commissioning in 2025, the EastMed, the pipeline is to have a capacity of 10bcm. The TurkStream line which is to go from Bulgaria to Greece will have a 16bcm capacity.
76​ RUSSIA Country Report​ February 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com