Page 11 - AsiaElec Week 24 2022

AsiaElec RENEWABLES AsiaElec

Hydrogen at risk of being the great

missed opportunity of the energy

transition, says DNV

GLOBAL DNV predicts that the amount of hydrogen in Blue hydrogen – produced from natural gas
the energy mix globally will be only 0.5% in 2030 with emissions captured – has a greater role to
and 5% in 2050. However, to meet the targets of play in the shorter term – it will be around 30%
the Paris Agreement, hydrogen uptake would of total production in 2030 – but its competitive-
need to triple to meet 15% of energy demand by ness will reduce as renewable energy capacity
mid-century, says the Norway-based provider of increases and prices drop.
risk management and assurance in its Hydrogen ost considerations will lead to more than 50%
Forecast to 2050 report. of hydrogen pipelines globally being repurposed
“Hydrogen is essential to decarbonise sectors from natural gas pipelines, as the cost to repur-
that cannot be electrified, like aviation, maritime pose pipelines is expected to be just 10-35% of
and high-heat manufacturing, and should there- new construction costs.
fore be prioritised for these sectors,” said Remi Hydrogen will be transported by pipelines up
Eriksen, group president and CEO of DNV. to medium distances within and between coun-
“[But] policies do not match hydrogen’s tries, but not between continents, predicts DNV.
importance,” Eriksen warned. “[Governments] Global hydrogen trade will also be limited by the
will also need to support the scaling of renew- high cost of liquefying hydrogen for ship trans-
able energy generation and carbon capture and port and the low energy density of hydrogen.
storage [CCS] as crucial elements in producing Ammonia, however, is more stable and can
low-carbon hydrogen.” be more readily transported by ship. It will be
Global spend on producing hydrogen for traded globally, says DNV.
energy purposes from 2022-2050 will be $6.8 Early uptake of hydrogen will be led by
trillion, with an additional $180bn spent on hard-to-abate, high-heat manufacturing pro-
hydrogen pipelines and $530bn on building cesses such as iron and steel production which
and operating ammonia terminals, according currently use fossil fuels. Hydrogen derivatives
to DNV’s forecasts. Ammonia is a hydrogen are key to decarbonising heavy transport like
derivative. shipping and aviation, but these fuels won’t scale
Renewable electricity-based green hydrogen until the 2030s according to DNV’s forecasts.
will be the dominant form of hydrogen produc- Hydrogen will not see uptake in passen-
tion by mid-century, accounting for 72% of out- ger vehicles, and only limited uptake in power
put, says the report. This will require a surplus of generation. Hydrogen for heating of buildings
renewable energy of 3,100 GW, more than twice will not scale globally, but will see early uptake
today’s total installed generation capacity of solar in some regions that already have extensive gas
and wind, it says. infrastructure.™

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