Page 4 - AfrElec Week 16 2021

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec

Emissions set to bounce back with

a vengeance in 2021

Energy-related emissions are set for their second-biggest annual increase ever, as Asian
economies maintain their reliance on coal-driven growth to meet rising demand for power

GLOBAL GLOBAL energy-related carbon dioxide emis- Fossil fuel demand
sions are forecast to increase by 4.8% to 33bn The IEA’ rising emissions forecast will be
WHAT: tonnes in 2021, the largest rise since 2010, accompanied by a 4.6% annual increase in
Emissions are set to rise with the global economy’s post-coronavirus energy demand in 2021, led by emerging mar-
by 4.8% in 2021, says (COVID-19) recovery expected to be particu- kets and developing economies. Such countries
the IEA larly carbon intensive. will account for 70% of the projected growth in
The International Energy Agency (IEA) global energy demand, the report found.
WHY: warned in a report released this week that the This will push global energy demand back to
The global economy’s 1.5bn tonne surge in emissions, the second-larg- 0.5% above 2019 levels, after a 4% fall in 2020.
post-COVID-19 recovery est increase in history, would reverse almost all of Demand for all fossil fuels is on course to
is forecast to be the decline seen in 2019. grow significantly in 2021, with both coal and
particularly carbon The IEA identified a 4.5% rise in demand gas set to rise above their 2019 levels. Oil is
intensive for coal in 2021 as the key driver of rebounding also rebounding strongly but is expected to
emissions, with the electricity sector accounting stay below its 2019 peak, as the aviation sector
WHAT NEXT: for three-quarters of this increase. remains under pressure.
Asia must lessen its The 5% rise in emissions in 2021 is equivalent Nevertheless, coal is the key fuel pushing up
reliance and pay more to 1.5bn tonnes, which would reverse 80% of the emissions. The anticipated rise in the use of coal
attention to renewables drop in emissions seen in 2020. for power generation will dwarf that of renewa-
to rein in emissions The 2021 emissions total of 33bn tonnes will bles by almost 60%, despite accelerating demand
be just 1.2%, or 400mn tonnes, below 2019 emis- for renewables, the IEA’s report found.
sions levels. More than 80% of the projected growth in
“This is a dire warning that the economic coal demand in 2021 is set to come from Asia,
recovery from the COVID crisis is currently any- led by China, which will account for 50%.
thing but sustainable for our climate,” said Fatih Coal use in the US and the European Union
Birol, the IEA Executive Director. is also on course to increase but will remain well
“Unless governments around the world move below pre-crisis levels.
rapidly to start cutting emissions, we are likely to The power sector accounted for only 50%
face an even worse situation in 2022. The Leaders of the drop in coal-related emissions in 2020.
Summit on Climate hosted by US President Joe But the rapid increase in coal-fired generation
Biden this week is a critical moment to commit in Asia means the power sector is predicted to
to clear and immediate action ahead of COP26 account for 80% of the rebound in 2021.
in Glasgow.”

P4 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 16 22•April•2021