Page 73 - 2004 DT 9 Issues

Predicting Earthquakes: recent advances in research and technol- application of such technology “could
Folklore and Physics ogy. The stakes are huge worldwide. advance earthquake science towards a
Although surface devastation is the better predictive capability.”
most obvious result of an earthquake, The technique involves compar-
n 373 BC, the Greek city of Helice the more subtle effects may reveal more ing pairs of images produced by a
was destroyed by an earthquake. about the physics underlying the forces yet-to-be-deployed satellite system that
IHistorian Diodorus Siculus wrote that lead to disaster. As early as the 1964 could generate a high enough density
that rats, snakes, weasels, centipedes, 9.2-magnitude Alaska quake, scientists of data to reveal subtle changes in the
worms, and beetles had headed inland in noted changes in well-water levels as Earth’s crust, indicating a build-up of
huge numbers before the eruption. far away as South Africa. A magnitude- strain. Such data would be vital in moni-
In 1975, animals in Haicheng, China 7.9 quake that shook central Alaska on toring the San Andreas Fault system.
began behaving strangely. Evacuation of November 3, 2002 changed the eruption While current techniques apply
the city—based in part on that observa- schedule in 8 of 22 monitored geysers more specifically to long term haz-
tion—preceded a 7.3-magnitude quake in Yellostone National Park, 1,926 miles ard assessment, they are more useful
on February 4 (just a few days later) away. According to Michael Manga, than shorter term predictions, helping
saving fatalities and injuries that could professor of earth and planetary science to focus priorities on likely areas to
have exceeded 150,000. evacuate, enhancing building codes,
That incident prompted the US and retrofitting structures to make them
Geological Survey (USGS) to conduct more secure.
studies of its own on animal prediction. Physics may be more reliable in
Although there have been documented predicting earthquakes than your cat’s
cases of strange animal behavior prior nervous breakdown is, but science is still
to earthquakes, the agency argues that a long way from understanding Earth’s
no reproducible connection between tectonic processes. The data may predict
specific behavior and a subsequent
earthquake has ever been made. Indeed,
on July 28, 1976, a 7.6-magnitude quake An Unusual Day
struck the city of Tangshen, China with for the Wrays
no warning signs at all, killing more than
250,000. And, although the Haicheng at the University of California at Berke- opefully, all of you know Dan
incident was provocative, it was later ley, studying the relationship between and Vera Wray; they have en-
learned that, in addition to the animal geology and hydrology may eventually Hriched all of us at the Rock for
evidence, a series of small foreshocks had lead to a way to forecast earthquakes. many years. Known for their smiles and
clinched the prediction for the Chinese. Japanese scientists have been study- cheery personalities, they can be found
Still, scientists continue to pur- ing such a connection for the last 25 either at the front desk or the tortoise
sue research on all fronts, however years. A planned study may suggest habitat. However, if you were at Harvest
controversial. Predicting disaster by that changes in groundwater pressure Fest, you may have noticed that Dan got
any means is vital to Japan, a country presage earthquakes in other locations. quite perturbed in the early afternoon.
plagued with frequent quakes. In 2003, Manga believes the key to successfully They were amongst the tortoises an-
a Japanese medical doctor conducted a exploiting such leads is remembering swering questions, when Athena arrived
study indicating that strange behavior that all of Earth’s various pieces con- with some prickly pear for the torts. All
in dogs, such as excessive barking or nect together. was fine until that nasty lil’ sprite, Trashy
biting, could be used to forecast earth- GESS, or Global Earthquake Satel- Poo, jumped in and began trying to feed
quakes. lite System, uses a technology known the torts trash. Our mild mannered Dan
Earthquake prediction is a very as InSAR, or interferometric synthetic would have no part of it and demanded
young science, if it is a science at all. aperture radar. Carol Raymond, a geo- that her shananigans stop. Vera, quite
Examples of successful forecasts are physicist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion amused by the display, got out her new
few, but that may someday change with Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., says the video camera and began to film.

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