Page 3 - White Paper
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TRENDS TO WATCH
“We think the industry can never just disappear, but
the textile industry is gone, and the wood industry could also leave. We need to have markets that are not totally dependent on housing,
like the emerging energy markets - less susceptible to
recession.”
—WAYne tUcKer, MISSISSIPPI DePUtY StAte ForeSter
Is the fastest growing “large” economy in the world at a GDP growth rate of 10.3 percent in 2010. The U.S. remained sluggish at 2.8 percent in 2010. The export of wood products to China from the U.S. grew from $316 billion in 2005 to $526 billion in 2010. For example, hardwood lumber exports from the U.S. totaled 92 million board feet (MMBF) in February 2011, according to www.woodworkingnetwork.com. Of that total, an astounding 70 percent of red oak, 38 percent of white oak and 47 percent of poplar (tulipwood) logs went to China,
up from 55, 25 and 35 percent, respectively, in the same timeframe for 2010.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), China passed the U.S. as the world’s biggest
paper and board (P&B) producer in 2008. Asia held a 43 percent share of the global output in P&B in 2009, ahead of Europe (27%) and Northern America (23%). The world’s P&B production contracted by 4 percent in 2009 at 377 million tons after an all-time record output in 2008 of 392
million tons. North America declined by 17.2 percent during 2004-2009, and Europe 6.7 percent.
According to Wood Resources International, in response to the growing Chinese demand, Canada has raised lumber shipments to China in recent years. Yet, the U.S. has increased exportation of logs
to Chinese sawmills and plywood manufacturers. In 2007, the U.S. exported less than 100,000 m3; in 2010 an extraordinary 2.4 million m3 was exported.
The U.S. is now the third largest softwood log supplier to China,
after Russia and New Zealand. The strong export market has caused sawlog prices in the Northwest to go up more than in any other region of North America over the past year, according to the Wood Resource Quarterly.
2005-2010 Wood Product Imports to the U.S.by Top 5 Countries [*billions/millions]
‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10
Canada 14.0 12.4 9.6 6.7 4.4 5.3
China 2.3 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.2 2.6
Brazil 1.5 1.5 1.1 818m 531m 606m
Chile 879m 1.0 769m 658m 502m 518m
Indonesia 371m 393m 363m 272m 172m 229m
TOTAL 23.6B 22.7B 18.5B 14.7B 9.7B 11.3B
*International Trade Administration
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