Page 32 - EW October 2025

Expert Comment

US college admission caps —

little cause for alarm

SHEILA BAUER RAY RAVAGLIA

ECENT HEADLINES ABOUT A NEW US Aggregate admissions demand from
proposal to cap international undergraduates
at 15 percent per campus, with no more than 5 countries like India is well below
Rpercent from any one country, has generated government prescribed caps. Even in the
flutter among Indian households/students. But demand
from countries like India is well below what EW-Launch- worst case scenario there are numerous
pad ranked undergrad colleges can accommodate (see options available for applicants
https://educationworld.in/rankings-americas-best-
universities-2025/). Even in a worst-case scenario, ap-
plicants can find numerous options provided they apply Despite recent recovery, National Student Clearinghouse
strategically. data reports undergraduate numbers below pre-pandemic
White House proposition. In early October, the White levels. The reality is clear: US colleges/universities need
House circulated a memo to nine universities, offering more undergraduates, not less.
them preferential access to federal funds if they signed a What international students should do now. While
“compact” with several conditions — including capping the proposed caps won’t immediately affect most colleges,
international undergraduate enrollment at 15 percent and some of the elite private colleges and large state universi-
no more than 5 percent from any one country. This is not ties will be impacted. Columbia and Carnegie Mellon, and
a universal rule but a proposal tied to funding incentives the University of Southern California as also Michigan
at specific institutions. Media reports have tended to and Wisconsin universities and University of Illinois,
overlook the fact that, so far, the memo is targeted and Urbana-Champaign, all surpass the proposed 15 percent
contingent. limit. The high concentration of international students at
International undergrad student numbers are these institutions is the outcome of brand recognition and
small even in top-ranked universities. Despite recruitment efforts rather than student success. Aspiring
concerns about international student enrollment, inter- students and households should bear this in mind.
national undergraduates number approximately 343,000 nternational students can improve their chances of
across the US — down 1.4 percent from the previous year Ipositive admission outcomes by following a few simple
— out of a total undergraduate population of 15.3 million. steps. First, expand your target list beyond few highly se-
That is equivalent to 2.2 percent of all undergrads, well lective colleges/universities. Second, assess opportunities
below the 15 percent ceiling proposed. and outcomes like co-ops, internships, retention, gradu-
Even if one narrows the focus to top-ranked universi- ation rates, and early-career earnings over brand name.
ties, the number of undergraduate seats just about exceeds Third, diversify by geography and type of institution —
6 million. For instance, the EW-Launchpad Rankings flagship public universities, regional public universities
which highlight universities especially suitable for inter- with strong industry connection, and selective private
national undergrad students, lists 780 US institutions institutions with strong student support. Finally, apply
with total undergraduate enrollment of 6.13 million. A early and broadly to beat campus caps that may kick in.
5 percent per-campus cap, when combined across these Keep your eyes on the prize. While selecting a US
schools, suggests a theoretical capacity of 306,500 Indian university remember the long game: the goal shouldn’t be
undergraduates. Against this in academic year 2025-26, a branded college but the career and life you’re building.
there are an estimated 36,000 Indian undergraduates The United States is a $27 trillion economy versus $4 tril-
in the entire United States. This number is roughly 10 lion in India, which means deeper capital markets, larger
percent of the cap, leaving ten times the headroom. Even innovation ecosystems, and more ladders into high-skill
if Indian undergraduate numbers were to grow by 25 work.
percent annually for the next five years, they would only For smart, ambitious students, the greatest upside will
aggregate 110,000 — well below the capacity mandated by come from positioning yourself to operate in both arenas,
a 5 percent cap across the Launchpad cohort. being able to move seamlessly between the world’s richest
Most US colleges need more undergraduates, democracy and the world’s most populous democracy.
not less. America’s colleges need more undergraduates This bi-directional fluency — US education and experi-
because the impending ‘enrollment cliff’ is real. Demogra- ence coupled with Indian networks and opportunity, will
phers and higher-ed analysts predict a multi-year decline compound over the coming decades. Choose programs
in traditional-age students, which will increase competi- that maximise skills, internships, and outcomes. Univer-
tion for undergrads. Private non-profit colleges with huge sity brands will fade; developed capabilities and cross-
unfilled capacity offered record tuition discounts averag- market mobility won’t.
ing 56 percent for first-time undergraduates in 2024-25. (Raymond Ravaglia and Sheila K. Bauer are co-founders of AccessUSA)

32 EDUCATIONWORLD OCTOBER 2025