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THE 2050

CONUNDRUM

The global ambition to meet the COP 21 1.5ºC target is of energy globally, and the use and
accelerating efforts for a less carbon-intensive energy mix exchange of energy between and
within decades. By 2050, it is predicted that gas and variable within ten geographic regions. Within
the projections, it also considers future
renewables may be the only energy sources in higher demand populations, cost projections and
globally than they are today. In tandem with extraordinary legislative planning. While geopolitical
policy action, Graham Bennett, Vice President, DNV GL – aspects are not included in the
Oil & Gas, urges fast-tracked technology delivery and research, they will undoubtedly have
an influence.
deployment to avert an impending climate crisis In contrast to scenario-based
approaches, the ETO presents a
ccording to DNV GL’s third renewable sources will also increase, single forecast of the future of energy,
annual Energy Transition Outlook from 14 per cent of the world energy mix essentially a ‘best estimate’ of
(ETO) report, global oil demand today to 40 per cent in 2050 (Figure 1). challenges and consequences.
will peak in the mid-2020s, but Crucially, global emissions from The ETO reveals there is no single
A the requirement for gas will keep energy use will peak by 2025. However, pathway to a lower-carbon energy
rising to 2033. This will then plateau this will not fall sufficiently enough mix. A combination of energy sources
and remain dominant until the end of by 2050 to limit global warming to the – primarily gas and renewables – will
the forecast period in 2050, when it will 2 C target (Figure 2). DNV GL predicts be the quickest route to delivering a
o
account for more than 29 per cent of the that the remaining 1.5ºC carbon budget supply of affordable, decarbonised
O
world’s energy supply. will be exhausted in 2028 and the 2 C energy in the lead-up to mid-century.
The independent forecast of carbon budget will also be exhausted Gas will increasingly complement
developments in the world energy mix before 2050, when it expects emissions variable renewables, meeting demand
to 2050 predicts that new sources of to be 26Gt/yr. in peak periods such as winter in
gas, for example, biogas, hydrogen and colder climates. Despite oil demand
synthetic methane, will be introduced to An independent ‘best estimate’ peaking in the mid-2020s, largely
domestic and industrial energy systems, DNV GL’s model-based predictions due to the rapid electrification of the
helping to further decarbonise gas on the world’s energy systems world’s road transportation fleet, it will
consumption. The supply of energy from encompasses demand and supply still account for 17 per cent of primary

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