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LNG taking centre stage. However,
there is currently insufficient
regasification capacity in Europe.
Production in places linked to the
European gas pipeline networks in
Norway, Algeria and Azerbaijan can
only inch their output upwards. Extra
infrastructure is expected to take two-
to-five years to build. However, this
will form a strand of the continent’s
overall energy security strategy.
Replacing two-thirds of Russian
gas by year-end looks like a tall
order, and the European energy
security ambition therefore hinges
on additional policies, such as those
3
outlined by the IEA in its 10-point plan .
Beyond nudging consumer behaviour
towards lower energy use, there is
scope for a concerted policy push for
energy efficiency, a postponement of
nuclear retirements, and an extensive
renewable energy buildout.

Replacing two-thirds of
Russian gas by year-end
looks like a tall order, and
the European energy security
ambition therefore hinges on
additional policies, such as
those outlined by the IEA in its
10-point plan

Russia’s pivot East will not
fully compensate for reduced gas
exports to Europe because of limited
infrastructure. In contrast, the research
estimates that Europe itself will
produce 12 per cent more gas in 2030,
reflecting the industry’s reaction to
higher oil and gas prices in the short-
term and the response to the pledge
from the EU to deliver more gas.
The war in Ukraine has shaken the
energy markets but decarbonisation
remains the central theme. Energy
companies will have to strike a careful
balance between meeting the short-term
in February. The biggest percentage energy efficiency and, in the short to supply gap for oil and gas whilst avoiding
increase is in solar, which by 2026 is up medium term, lower economic growth. stranded assets in the longer term.
20 per cent. The model provides insight on how There is a risk of overcapacity in
Although some coal is needed in economics, technologies, sectors, the oil and gas sector towards the
the very short term to meet Europe’s geographies, and policies influence end of the decade as companies look
energy demand, by 2024 postponed each other. The next edition of the to capitalise on the high prices and
retirements and higher nuclear annual Energy Transition Outlook is due supply gap. The long-term trend
2
utilisation will be important to cover in October . remains weak for oil; and the reduced
the shortfall of natural gas. Emissions GDP growth and slower globalisation
from energy will be 2.3 per cent lower ENERGY SECURITY that are consequences of the conflict
in Europe in the period 2022-2030, European policymakers are are likely to further dampen demand.
compared to a pathway without determined to slash the EU’s Russian Increased oil and gas capacity towards
the Ukraine war. This is due to the gas dependence by two-thirds this 2030 is forecast to lead to lower prices,
increased prominence of low carbon year. The replacement will be painful which will likely increase global use in
energy (renewables and nuclear), more and costly, with increased import of the 2030s by a small amount.

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