Page 17 - Booklet Social Health & Wellness

Calibrating Self-Confidence

Anyone who agrees with the aphorism “fake it till you make it” believes that pretend confidence is better than not having any. But this
could be detrimental because the way we make decisions depends on our level of confidence. This is why many people doubt their
most important decisions, while others overestimate theirs. Don A. Moore, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley's Haas
School of Business, tells us that by calibrating our confidence, we can make better decisions in all areas of our lives. In his book,
Perfectly Confident, he explores what confidence is and how we can leverage it effectively.

Contrary to what many think, overconfidence isn’t harmless.
History is full of tragic accidents that came about because people made snap decisions that vastly over estimated their own ability. Use confidence to help you start
the work you need to succeed, not bypass it. Confidence alone won’t let you finish a marathon if you’ve never run before. But confidence can give you the push to
start training, one mile.
People underconfident about difficult tasks often forget that others are struggling as well.
Underconfidence is most common when people simultaneously know the limits of their own abilities and don’t know the limits
of others’. In short, they become discouraged not because they're struggling more than others, but because they didn't see
the others struggling. This feeling of inferiority can be incredibly persistent. Remember to not compare your hard work to
others’ finished products.
Make forecasts that consider a range of possible outcomes to avoid overconfidence.
Expected value is a powerful tool for forecasting. Instead of choosing a single outcome, assign probabilities to a range
of outcomes. This is an extremely useful way to improve your foresight because it forces you to consider all the possible
outcomes for a project instead of making a single assumption that’s likely to be wrong. To keep alternative outcomes in
mind, think about “which” choice you want to make instead of “whether” you want to make a choice or not. You can’t be
sure you’re making the right choice unless you know what all your options are.
Consider others’ perspectives to help challenge your own biases.
Far from being an obstacle to knowledge, disagreement can be an essential tool in improving our forecasting ability.
Learning how and why others disagree can help us expand our own thinking and balance out the errors each person tends
to make. This can be a useful principle even if you’re by yourself. When trying to draw upon the wisdom of a crowd, it’s important
to remember that you want a range of diverse opinions. If you only ask people with the same biases as you, you aren’t achieving a
more balanced estimate. Good organizations bring together people with a range of perspectives to raise alternate ideas and
produce better decisions.
Exaggerated confidence isn’t trustworthy; ability is what earns trust.
Of course, pure confidence can inspire trust. But that only goes so far. In the long run, confidence means nothing if it has no basis in reality.
That’s not to say you should be overly critical or pessimistic. The middle path is to communicate honestly about what you don’t know, drawing
upon your experience and ability to convey credible and well-calibrated information. It’s this kind of well-deserved confidence that truly
resonatesin the long run.
For confident leadership, set clear standards and be open to new information.
This is especially important in leadership contexts since a common source of conflict in a team setting is when people have different ideas of
what’s needed. Set clear, measurable standards, and both leaders and team members will have a more accurate idea of where they stand.
That said, setting clear goals isn’t enough. Leaders also have to make sure they’re receiving all the available information – not just the things
they want to hear. Good leaders build organizations where people can raise questions and concerns, even if they go against what
leadership originally believed. Remember: the more information you have, the more perfect your confidence will be.