Page 2 - July-August 2018 GSE Report Flip Book

THE GSE REPORT
by a state entity fails to repay a US$73 million
© 2018 by Canfield Press, LLC. All rights reserved.
Retail sales show Chinese consumers
Global Car Sales Hit Speed Bump
After nearly a decade of growth, new-vehicle sales in the Uw.oSrld.’sINlargDestUauStoTmRarkeItAs aLre ePnteRrinOg thDeirUfirCst TsusItOaineNd
slowdown since the financial crisis amid trade frictions.
Walmart said sales rose at the fastest rate in over a decade as the world’s largest retailer continues to draw more people to stores and benefit from strong consumer spending boosting performance at many retailers.
The Index is now within 0.1 point of the record high of 108.0
Emerging market exports slow even before tariff hit
Mini boom in exports comes to an end as growth falls to 18-
month low. Inadequate policy response from Ankara is 5inflicting damage on other countries
reached in July 1983.
August 30, 2018
The Summer Heat Spell...
Chinese regional investment arm in landmark bond default Xinjiang holding group misses debt payment signalling end of implicit state bailout
Bond default in Xinjiang the latest sign of stresses in China’s financial system A company controlled by a state entity fails to repay a US$73 million note, triggering sell-off of related debt
2018 issue 16
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U.S. Corporate Profits Soared in Second Quarter, Boosted by Tax Cuts and Economic Growth Commerce Department measured 16.1% year- over-year gain, the largest in six years
New tariffs on $200 bn worth of Chinese goods (many of which are consumer products) are about to hit the economy
South Korea has proposed its largest budget increase in a decade as it seeks to boost a failing economy that is also hit by the falling approval ratings of President Moon Jae-in.
US gasoline (implied) demand has been soft relative to last year
The PunchLine...
August 30, 2018
The NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index in the US rose unexpectedly by 0.7 points to 107.9 in July 2018, easily beating market expectations of 106.9. It was the second-highest reading in the survey’s 45-year history,
Brazil... As predicted, the May truckers' strike appears to SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEXhave pushed the economy into negative territory in Q2
Despite plenty of hotspots on the political and economic fronts around the globe, major US equity indices have remained in record territory.
Any optimism regarding better global growth momentum has been replaced by trade fears and emeWrgainlmg-maratrskaeitdtrsoaulebslerospseotsa.t tUh.eSf.agsrtoewsthrate in over a decade as
momentum, however, is building and confidence indicators continue to surprise. This is true despiteheCwaloiforlrdn’ias'slarlagregsetsrteftiraeisleervceorn, tihnautewsiltlo draw more people to
clearly hit economic statistics The announcement that the U.S. had reached a new trade agreement with Mexico creates an opening for
Canada to rejoin talks as well. The threat of a global trade war has hung over businesses and markets this year, but it has taken a much
Global Car Sales Hit Speed Bump performance at many retailers.
greater toll on markets in China. While many have pointed to Iran tensions, problems in Turkey and several Latin American situations for the
After nearly a decade of growth, new-vehicle sales in the
extended rattling in many Asian currencies, it is in fact the ugly combination of slower China growth, the withdrawal of liquidity from key
world’s largest auto markets are entering their first sustained
developed market central banks, and (to some extent) the previous bump in dollar oil prices that account for the pressure on the most
vulnesrlaobwledowf tnhessinecectohneofminieans.ciFaeldcroisffiisciamlsidseteramdetofrbicetisoignns.aling some five interest rate hikes over the next 15 months. And the steady
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reduction in the Fed’s still swollen balance sheet lingers as the central bank sells off assets acquired since the introduction of quantitative
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New tariffs on $200 bn worth of Chinese goods CdorllpaorrcaotemPerobfiatsckSotoarheaduintSgercowndthQpuraorstepre, cts even in the U.S.?
Mortgage purchase applications have declined recently. Americans are less comfortable buying a home these days What ‘s behind this?
Canada Voices Optimism on NAFTA, Sentiment was boosted Jbuylythethanoiutnwceamseantytehatr tehaerlUieSr.haCdapacity utilization for the industrial
Infrastructure Needs
Genoa bridge collapses - and thousands of other structuresinItaly andelsewhereareatrisk
Trade Tensions Persist Chinese and U.S. negotiators are drawing up a road map for talks to end their trade impasse ahead of meetings between President Trump and Xi Jinping in November.
Some Tesla Suppliers Fret About Getting5Paid
The overall demand for OPEC’s crude is now expected to be 32.9 million barrels a day this year, which is around 600,000 barrels a day lower than in 2017.
Crypto market crash
not offsetting US trade war impact
ong
(many of which are consumer products) are about to hit the economy
South Korea has proposed its largest budget increase in a decade as it seeks to boost a failing economy that is also hit by the falling approval ratings of President Moon Jae-in.
US gasoline (implied) demand has been soft relative to last year
Boosted by Tax Cuts and Economic Growth
Commerce Department measured 16.1% year- over-year gain, the largest in six years
US industrial output edged up 0.1 percent month-over-month in July 2018, following an upwardly revised 1 percent increase in June; latest month missed market expectations of a 0.3 percent gain. Manufacturing production continued to grow while there was a contraction in both utilities and mining output. At 108.0 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.2 percent higher in
Says Auto Deal Was Reached reachedanewtradeagreesmecetnotrwiwthaMseuxnicoh,acnregaetidngiannoJpuelnyingat 78.1 percent, a rate that is 1.7
Households finally getting paid for their deposits
for Canada to rejoin talks covering $1.2 trillion in annual trade.
Coverage ratios on all new loans tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence’s
Turkish Lira Weakens as Central
Bank Fails to Assuage Investors
Venezuela Adds to Chaos With One of Biggest Currency Devaluations Ever
LCD this year have fallen to the lowest levels since 2008 but have yet to collapse Elon Musk Hands Tesla's to the troughs seen during the dotcom boom and bust and financial crisis.
implicit state bailout
US industrial output edged up 0.1 percent month-over-month in July 2018, following an upwardly revised 1 percent increase in June; latest month missed market expectations of a 0.3 percent gain. Manufacturing production continued to grow while there was a contraction in both utilities and mining output. At 108.0 percent of its
Engines of Growth...
2012 average, total industrial production was 4.2 percent higher in July than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was unchanged in July at 78.1 percent, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.
percentage points below its long-runB(1ig97A2u–t2o01M7)aakveerrsagTer.im Forecasts Strong dollar contains US inflation; but rattles int’l conditions
Bond default in Xinjiang the latest sign of stresses
in China’s financial system A company controlled
note, triggering sell-off of related debt
www.canfieldpress.com 2
U.S. Government Budget Deficit Continues to Widen
JuAl.N-UAuRgY. 2018
stores and benefit from strong consumer spending boosting