Page 1 - July-August 2018 GSE Report Flip Book

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TRACKING THE GOVERNMENT’S ROLE IN THE FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY
U.S. growth momentum ...is building and confidence indicators continue to surprise
Despite plenty of hotspots on the political and economic fronts around the globe, major US

GDP ESTIMATE FOR Q3 2018
equity indices have remained in record territory. Any optimism regarding better global growth momentum has been replaced by trade fears and emerging-market trouble spots. U.S. growth momentum, however, is building and confidence indicators continue to surprise. This is true despite California’s largest fires ever, that will clearly hit economic statistics
Can’t Handle the Truth...
Let's Take the “Con” out of Economics
Source: Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Aug. 30, 2018
sovereign or corporate specific factors. Factors outside of one’s
Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts apparent control realm need to be monitored. More emphasis needs
Note: The top (bottom) 10 forecast is an average of the highest (lowest) 10 forecasts in the Blue Chip survey. to be placed on the role of global liquidity or other developments
U.S. MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
The PunchLine...
Investors in Tencent Holdings Ltd., once the hottest stock in Asia, are trying to figure out where the bottom is. The Chinese internet giant, best known for its popular games and ubiquitous messaging services, has shed more than $150 billion in market value since a January peak, the biggest wipeout of shareholder wealth worldwide. Some $15 billion evaporated on Tuesday after regulators told the Shenzhen-based company to remove Monster Hunter: World from its PC downloads service just days after the action title’s debut. The hit comes as game revenue growth slows and trade tensions between the U.S. and China punish wide swaths of the market. But what has investors most concerned is the regulatory setbacks in a country where the government can make -- or break -- fortunes. Besides Monster Hunter, the company hasn’t won approvals to make money from the marquee mobile game PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds and to introduce the desktop version in China.
5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0
Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP estimate for 2018: Q3
Quarterly percent change (SAAR)
Blue Chip consensus
Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate
Range of top 10 and bottom 10 forecasts
26-Jun 4-Jul
12-Jul 20-Jul 28-Jul
5-Aug
13-Aug 21-Aug
29-Aug
Beware Global Swish... There is a growing importance to international capital flows and disrupDtiaotnesorfefolareticvaestto a local country/
from far away...

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