Page 9 - September October 2018 Disruption Report Flip Book

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
SEJPATN.U-AORCYT.20210818
On September 30, the unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, its lowest rate since 1969, while the number of Americans collecting unemployment hit the lowest level in decades. (Washington Post, Heather Long, 10/05/18)
Over the twelve months ended July, U.S. manufacturing added 327,000 jobs—the most of
October 16, 2018 2018 issue 19
any 12-month period since April 1995. “With 157,000 jobs created in July, including 37,000 in manufacturing, this report shows tax reform and regulatory relief are continuing to deliver
Stretch Marks...
Questions regarding market valuations become particularly vexing when bond yields are on the rise, something not seen for many years.
for America’s manufacturing workers,” said Carolyn Lee, executive director of the National
The reversal in the bond market has pushed 10-year yields to their highest levels since 2011, and shaken the foundational appeal of Asesqoucitiieast. iNoonwocfomMeas nthuefcahcatlluenrgeersw’hMethaenr uthfisarcetcuernitntugrbIunlesntciteuistea. t(uCrnNingBpCoi,ntT, thoe mbeagisnnFinrgaonf csokm, e0th8in/0g 3ev/1en8)more threatening, or just another setback in a longer bull market. U.S. economic fundamentals remain clearly ahead of other major economies, and concerns in emerging markets have only become aggravated. This has set up a quandary. Will the myriad international concerns eventually pull down
U.S. growth or will U.S. dominance continue and serve as a buffer to the catalogue of economic and political risks?
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index
Source: University of Michigan
The US unemployment rate fell in
September to its lowest level since
Th1e96C9,onthseumlatesrt Csiognfiodfenthcee Index now stands at 137.9 (1985=100), up from 135.3 in September—
Stocks Seek Stability After Global Rout
The 30-Year Mortgage Rate Approaches 5%
Yuan Lending Rate Surges as China
Struggles to Stem Currency’s Slide
China’s effort to support its decelerating
The federal government's interest expense is climbing rapidly and will accelerate
economy is heaping pressure on the yuan,
over the next few years. The government already pays $1.5 billion in interest per day.
signaling challenges for Beijing as it tries to
tightening of America’s labor A Tech Shock... Tech and semiconductor shares are struggling amid capital outflows.
the highest level in 18 years. In addition, the Expectations Index (e.g., consumers’ short-term
market. concerns over tariffs and fears that Chinese-made technology may be
What is Fed’s endgame? How close o u t l o o k f o r i n c o m e , b u s i n e s s a n d l a b o r m a r k e t c o n d i t i o n s ) i n c r e a s e d f r o m 1 1 2 . 5 i s l t a h e s F t e md t o o i n t s t h " t e r t mo i n a l " r a t e ?
unsafe. Rebuilding supply chains will be expensive....
Economies in emerging Asia, after a few A major U.S. telecom discovered manipulated hardware from Super
months of protesting that Argentina and Turkey Micro Computer in its network, fresh evidence of tampering in China
114.6. As a result of strong consumer confidence, this year’s holiday retail sales are expected
were idiosyncratic cases, have accepted the dual of U.S.-bound components ► Hurricane Michael hit Florida via the
impact of trade war on their income lines and A bruising session for tech stocks handed the Nasdaq Composite its Gulf... ; hit energy mkts; a boost to to grow between 5% and 5.6% to $1.1 trillion, according Deloitte’s annual retail sales forecast.
higher US interest rates on the expense lines. biggest one-day drop since 2016’s Brexit vote and saw the S&P 500
chalk up its longest losing streak of the Trump presidency. ►
natural gas prices
Some 40% of offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico was halted because of Michael.
Pension funds, endowments and other large investors that bought insurance- linked securities such as catastrophe
(CNBC Television, Steve Odland, 10/30/18; CNBC, Lauren Thomas, 09/19/18)
The Indian rupee and the Indonesian rupiah keep crashing
Inside a €200bn ‘dirty money’ scandal ►
Danske Bank is mired in scandal after revelations its Estonian branch
was a conduit for billions of euros of ‘dirty’ money. Inquiries in six
The economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, growing at an annuabloinzdes cdourldabteonothfe hook for the cost
Pakistan's stock market tumbled as the countries aim to find out why the flows went undetected for so long.
of hurricane damage.
nation heads for another IMF bailout
3.5%—marking the best back-to-back quarters in four years. Personal consumption of goods and
serAvBicReAsHmAMadGeUlLaKrOgWe IcToZntribuCtiohinsa fhoarlttshceruthdeirdoilqiumaprotertrs, farocmcotuhentUinSg. for 1.2% and 1.49, respectively.
abe@gulkowitz.com
The917h-4o02u-90s39ing market adversely impacted U.S. growth for the third quarter, as rising rates and
Sears, the one-time titan of American retail, filed for bankruptcy ahead of a $134 million debt payment due Monday and announced that it will close 142 stores.
declining affordability slowed home sales.
“The [last] two quarters recorded the fastest six-month growth in four years and is on track to hit Trump administration’s annual growth target of 3%,” wrote Zacks’ Tirthankar Chakraborty. “If that happens, it would be the best yearly performance since 2005, two years before the Great Recession.” (Business Insider, 10/26/18; Zacks, Tirthankar Chakraborty, 10/29/18)
stimulate growth without triggering destabilizing
U.S. and China Edge Closer to Cold War
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